Have a read of this - it should help you understand the reports and possible use of them - remember the data is computed on tuesday every week but published on friday - so there is a time lag which has implications on how you interpret them. http://investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp?partner=ntu9
mckinn i agree with the bullish GBP call, but things are bit all over the place i.e. the moves are not looking very clean at this stage - so tight stops are important
this is crazy - the Merkel potential resignation if you google - comes up only with some fx trading website - no mainstream media seems to be talking about it - on the internet or tv !
Xaron - if this is just a stupid rumour - then it is a great buying opportunity before europe opens
Letisha - hope you are right - i have been long from 1.4420 for the last 5 days - and now getting worried that this may pull back as the uptrend is losing momentum.
Mont - appears to be working now, however I am getting uncomfortable with my EUR long - market is broadly stuck between 1.4460 and 530 if it does not blast past 1.4600 before the ECB rate decision tonight - we could have a mini reversal. but still not the environment to short unless you want scalp around
pippedoff - that was my post of bearish USD which Ashraf disagreed with - and here is original clarification give for it :
""Ashraf
bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.
earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so. the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.
Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(11 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(11 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(12 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (12 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (12 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (12 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(12 months ago)
Gold and USDJPY
Weaker than expected CPI is expected to help gold and drag on USDJPY until this evening's Fed decision/press conference..
View Hot-Chart..
Have a read of this - it should help you understand the reports and possible use of them - remember the data is computed on tuesday every week but published on friday - so there is a time lag which has implications on how you interpret them.
http://investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp?partner=ntu9
cheers
vik
i agree with the bullish GBP call, but things are bit all over the place i.e. the moves are not looking very clean at this stage - so tight stops are important
Xaron - if this is just a stupid rumour - then it is a great buying opportunity before europe opens
I would not recommend doing anything on the EURO till the ECB rate decision / press conference a few hours from now.
vik
With the strong jobs out of australia - do you think the RBA could raise rates by 50 basis points on Feb 2
thanks
vik
""Ashraf
bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.
earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.
Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.