Last three months average job gain is 32k, the forecast is just 10K - an easy number to beat and force a rally to 94.
last month the forecast was +5k and the actual was +32k. However, AUDUSD rallied about 80 points over the day before coming back in the next 2 days. But do remember in early Dec we were in a USD bull phase - now it appears we are not - so a a good beat could take it to 94 or more. we will know in the next 55 mins
spec has been calling for some sort of USD rally since Aug 09. be mindful - spec is long term player - trading over quarterly and yearly time frames unlike most of us here playing with hours, days and at most a week.
bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.
earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so. the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.
Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.
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ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (12 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (12 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (12 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(12 months ago)
Gold and USDJPY
Weaker than expected CPI is expected to help gold and drag on USDJPY until this evening's Fed decision/press conference..
View Hot-Chart..
Last three months average job gain is 32k, the forecast is just 10K - an easy number to beat and force a rally to 94.
last month the forecast was +5k and the actual was +32k. However, AUDUSD rallied about 80 points over the day before coming back in the next 2 days. But do remember in early Dec we were in a USD bull phase - now it appears we are not - so a a good beat could take it to 94 or more.
we will know in the next 55 mins
cheers
vik
what you call manipulation is simply the market
GBP hits 1.6150 before 1.6050 -
i am long eurusd from 1.4420, stop now at b/e. T1 : 1.4574. T2 :1.4680, T3 : 1.4790
1.4440 is now support for today according to my indicators.
bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.
earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.
Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab2S.a9MQJSY&pos=3