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Posts by "tradingwala"
12 Posts by member
tradingwala
(Mumbai, India)
EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
To begin with, I didn’t expect FED rate hike in DEC 2015. Though it became almost certain in last 1-2 months, it messed up my analysis across asset classes!
Since the rate hike cycle has just begun, except for EURUSD <0.9 every other option here looks a shock/surprise in 2016. Why? Because-
•The FED rate cut would be a big policy blunder and an antithesis to rate hike.
•My theory is that if FED hikes further in 2016, then China can’t crash at all.
•In strong dollar environment EURUSD >1.25 looks extremely difficult.
•And how can you declare US recession in an election year of 2016.
So, to me the biggest shock/surprise of 2016 could be a FED rate cut! On UK exit from EU, I am confused.
How about giving the first half of 2016 to a stronger Dollar and decide on 2nd half in June-July 2016!!