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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 19, 2009 21:57
Comments: 315
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Oil Weakness May Intensify

Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 18:21
yes raulin, dec may have been flash in the pan, but even though i see renewed job deterioation in US later this quarter (we could even see triple digit payroll losses again) a negative stocks reaction could be USD positive. again, USD gets best of both worlds rising on bad stocks but also on any upside US data surprise. thats my hypothesis. we shall see..

Ashraf
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
14 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 17:40
Hi Chloe . The jobs news out of US and CAD not good but equities don't give a stuff about jobs we have seen this time and time again the so called "job less" recovery as there does not seem to be any severe downturn in consumer spending ...get that and equities will fall. Remember CAD strength not all about oil. Banks for eg.are less leveraged and better regulated . I would agree that high oil prices not great for equities Dow transports will be down for example and companies profits less but just because equities strong does not mean oil has to go down it has technically looked very strong and would need to break below 64.64 its 50 wk MA for me to get bearish. Strong resistance at 8800 previous support on weeklies.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 17:04
also i think the soo called data we get are just # made up by the us gover to get a desired affect..an at the moment the us gover wants there dollar cheap to help there recovery an there probally strong arming othere countries to play allong why eles would O;flarity make such a speculative comment on china buying cad an hurt his own currency just when all the hype on usd goin into a rally,i remember just 3week ago all the noise about usd goin on a run but look were we are at now..i think they realized it was a bit too soon to have there currancy rise..so lesson to me next time usdcad gets to 1.0700 im out an goin short..frustrating to think i was in 100% cash an gettn ready to short usdcad but my own fault tryn to squeeze a extra couple hundred pips outa cad when i shoulda shifted into eru or jpy..like ashraf suggested..but didn;t know much about those pairs..ohh well rambled on enough gl all
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 16:49
hi raulin, i thought if we had strong # outta canada an the us that would gave the ok for risk appitite to continue as signs the recovery is underway ,but with poor # is this the begging of more bad news comfirming that there is no recovery yet, so if no recovery how does crude play strong i was expecting crude to drop yesterday an close below the 100 or 200 ma...but instead crude rises to new highs an closes strong so if crude goes higher i would think cad is getting stronger unless that correlation is broken but i don;t know how concider we trade off price in crude..if any1 eles out there can help explain more sides to this story greatly appreciated..all the best
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
14 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 16:12
Ashraf I think USD/CAD looking very bearish I don't see anything that is telling me to buy USD versus CAD despite poor CAD jobs number USD did not rally much against CAD. It would have taken a good US jobs number as FED won't raise rates until they see sustained job improvement .Increase December jobs flash in the pan?
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 8, 2010 17:36
chloe, payrolls were not good but NOT terrible. at this point better to wait for 1.0320s and retarget 1.039. but i rather by USD vs JPY on dips.

Wasup, i havent changed my view that oil will hit 87 and 89. the fact that we will close week above 100week MA is a very good. see my latest article on oil and EURUSD.

Ashraf
Wasup
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 54
14 years ago
Jan 8, 2010 16:59
Asad,
It looks like Oil is going to break above 83.40 today. what's your views?
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 8, 2010 16:55
Seems oil will make a major move before close of play today...


Asad
Charlie Brown
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 8, 2010 15:01
I have longed oil at 82.6
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jan 8, 2010 14:26
CL_F seeing some good support around the low 82s for the time being...Am surprised GS got the NFP numbers wrong. I'm sure their prop desk was privy to the real figure a while back
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