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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
Jun 9, 2010 22:53
also like to hold EURCAD long as pair is way over sold, for near term hoping to make some money out of it.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
Jun 9, 2010 22:50
CAT I must admit secretly sold usdchf the pair is getting predictable same goes for GBPCHF, buy it every time it sells aggressively and sell it every time its stays side ways and there important fundamental is coming up and you think markets will get risk averse. No clear strategy but seems to work. Still see GBP to remain toppish with a slight chance here n there for a breakout (lucky if your long then) Other wise if pounds lifts aggressively due to a short surge of a rally in Euro due intervention, then a clear signal to short GBP for a day or two.
CHFYEN also staring back on the my list with the return of EBRGBP much needed and hope competitiveness. CHFJPY giving very clear rally both for long and short if know how to read the early into the signs. Signals usually early asian stock decline, Europe opens and rallies and and US starts and just sends it back to baking humble pies :) Sell on such a scenario.
With ccy vs equities correlation chapter coming to its end I pairs like CADYEN making some significant gains over weeks ahead.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jun 9, 2010 21:55
Sold EURJPY @110,4 ( it reached 110.56 ) and shorted again. GBPJPY long did well 200 pips.
I believe it needs a bigger bulltrap to sell off euro denominated stocks especially a firmer eur.

Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
Jun 9, 2010 20:33
EUR/JPY: Dive, Dive,Dive!
EUR/JPY is getting sold off in a hurry as this mornings optimism suddenly is called into question.
The cross rallied as far as 110.60 very briefly, just far enough to trigger stops in the 110.40/50 region.
Stops done, slide resumes.Were now down to 109.30. 108.85 and 108.35 are supports on pullbacks within the old range
Contributing to euro weakness is continued talk among respected officials of controlled sovereign bankruptcies (from Weber and Zoellick) . US equities have lost about two-thirds of earlier gains and gold is beginning to edge up again, a euro-negative of late.
Bids are seen in the 1.1975/85 area with stops seen down at 1.1960/65.


I Guess Rallies Are For Sale
As I wrote earlier in the week, blindly selling every rally in EUR/USD remains the most profitable strategy going. You dont have to be particularly choosy, as long as you are willing to put a stop up above say 1.2150.
CNBC is blaming BP bankruptcy talk for the latest Wall Street weakness. On the merits, the talk is silly, but when you have the White House stepping on your throat and kicking your ass at the same time, all bets are off
Also weighing is support for the swap-desk spin-off in the Senate finreg bill from Chairman Chris Dodd.
Traders are getting spun around like a record baby, right round, today

Wall Street are helping increase risk aversion again and risk aversion is helping cut US bond yields. USD/JPY has fallen back to the 119.15 level from earlier highs near 91.67 while EUR/JPY has slumped to 109.30 from 110.60 highs.
US two-year notes are down to 0.73% in yield from 0.77% when optimism was higher earlier in the day. 10s are at 3.175% from 3.24 earlier.
In EUR/USD, traders note heavy selling by US real money accounts from the 1.2010 area down to 1.1985. Note that there is often a lag between the underlying stock or bond trade being done and the FX component flowing to the custodians. It looks as though US managers continued to pull money out of Europe today, selling into strength.
Passion Trader
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 52
14 years ago
Jun 7, 2010 23:19
Why Japan Can Sustain Its Incredible Debt In 2010? - Ashraf Laidi http://bit.ly/cvvcqE
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jun 4, 2010 18:23
USDJPY extending selloff which makes that 93.60 target in USDJPY call in the red.

CADJPY failed 90 trendline resistance, hitting 86.80 target, followed by 85.90.

Ashraf
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
Jun 4, 2010 16:37
China Has Begun Slashing Commodity Production On Overcapacity Fears


China is bringing back production restrictions for select commodities, after removing such restrictions during the recent global crisis.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MITI) announced capacity closures this week, and more will come via the National Development and Reform Commission, says Citi's Alan Heap.
Citi:
Coal Further Closures MIIT announced a target to cut 21Mt of coking coal capacity by 3Q 2010, following the 82Mt closed in 2009. Of this only 5Mt is in Shanxi, where most of the closures have occurred so far.
Aluminium Capacity Closures The target announced by MITT this week of 340Kt, takes the total to 1.7Mt by 2011. Older plants are targeted which use Soderberg technology and low Amp (kA) cells.
Note that the coking coal cuts are of particular interest for dry bulk shipping investors such as those in Dryships (DRYS) or Eagle Bulk (EGLE) given that less domestic production means that more will have to be imported via seaborne routes, which is positive.

Still, to what extent these policies are actually implemented remains to be seen:
Provinces on Board? Critical to the success of these plans is whether or not provincial governments tow the line. Notably in the case of coal closures, Shanxi has announced targets 40% above the central governments, and in the case of aluminium Henan province has increased electricity tariffs by USc0.4/kWhr above the central governments.
(Via Citi, Commodity Heap, Alan Heap. 4 June 2010)

Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jun 4, 2010 2:42
USDJPY pushing higher see chart im IMT
http://chart.ly/8nv646

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jun 3, 2010 3:23
Farzan, looks like your long USDJPY did work out and this could now go to 93 barring any disappointing NFP on Friday.

darren, it will take some weeks before JPY will be preferred currency at the next round of risk aversion but at this point it remains USD and to lesser extent the CHF.


FXHandler, NOKJPY can go to 14.70 for now.



Ashraf
darrendeluxe
Oklahoma, United States
Posts: 1
14 years ago
Jun 2, 2010 2:37
Ashraf -

With the political turmoil in Japan considered....What effects should be considered in a market panic / risk aversion event? My first guess was this would amplify USD strength. What other currency would benefit in the event of risk aversion? Gold keeps coming to mind as another beneficiary.

Thanks in advance...
Darren