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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 20:31
i do not think EUR will on parity with USD. if so, china must dead already.

if china not revaluate their currency(less than 5-10%), eurusd may drop to 1.25 by the year end or beginning of the next year.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 20:18
I agree with Ashraf that EUR still has some upside but I disagree with his reasons. Debt deflation along with USD swapped into EUR for funding needs (have already seen KBN, OKB, EIB, and soon BNG) come to US market for funding, they will swap or have pre-swapped those USDs into EUR.

If anything, the extension of the full allocation repos beyond year-end would depress EUR because it is a source of excess liquidity, or more liquidity than normally would have been available. That is not something that would be supportive of EUR strength from a supply-demand metric.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 20:11
Seems to me that some guys in this forum are inclined to get their timeframe knickers in a twist. Any technician making longer term forecasts or projections has every right to identify a violation and adjusty accordingly as the market confirms or invalidates. Or are we talking about high egoes here ?
subway90
Korea Sout
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 20:11
and check the USD index.... looks like failure to the upside... wouldn't be surprised to see new lows coming... gl all
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 20:10
Re: Catnip "Think twice: ECB monetizing of PIGS bonds could be compared to FED monetizing California bonds. The FED doesn't buy Ca bonds. Why not? "

Sorry for the delayed response, but the answer is that the Fed does not have to. There is more than enough investor appetite, both domestic and foreign. The ECB has to buy garbage that few others would touch.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-17/international-buyers-increase-u-s-muni-bond-holdings-15-to-83-billion.html

The reason once again goes back to what I have been stating repeatedly, though in different hues. Foreigners have to redeploy their long USD back into the US in order to sterilize the appreciative effects on their own currencies. If they do not do this, then they must be prepared to redeploy those USD into other currencies or assets (USD denominated assets). But then that recipient nation must be willing to either absorb the US's deficit with that capital exporting nation or in turn reallocate that capital back into the USD via US Treasury or asset purchases in order to sterilize the impact on their own currencies. No one currently (or normally) wants to absorb another nation's deficit. With Europe being unable to sustain its deficit, the US is being leaned into even more heavily, hence the continued bid in UST and other US assets. We've already seen Japan's unwillingness to absorb the US's deficit with China after China decreased UST holdings and increased JPY and JGB purchases. No one wants to absorb that deficit. This is also why USD bears do not see the big picture. The world reserve currency, by its nature, must be provided in excessive supply to meet the world's demands. This necessary excessive supply along will bring many to question its soundness. If there is not ample supply of that world reserve currency, you will have deflation and depression resulting from what essentially is a destruction of money supply, a la what drove the downfall of gold as a currency or as a currency peg (limitations of physical supply in regards to its application towards both tangible and intangible value).
subway90
Korea Sout
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 20:07
maybe a bit too extreme catnip? fundamentals can allow for bigger ranges but technicals don't support your view for now... you sound like one of the forum member in the other forum... let's take it one step at a time catnip.. :)

technically... minor support formed at 3380... break would see test of 3150(3100 max)... only break below 2585 confirms resumption of downtrend.... test of 3800/3900 level is more probable(at least technically) for now.. then lower but not necessarily resumption of downtrend...

hi ignore... how's it going?
Ignore
Jamaica
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 19:45
strong view catnips..appreciate the outlook
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 19:23
Well I bet Ashraf is wrong here. Firstly ther won't be a prolongation of the IMF ECB bailout packet. Secondly there is no strength of German economy. And thridly it is not possible to bailout Greece Ireland and Portugal. Don't forget Eurozone banks, firstly German banks, are undercapitalized.
And finally this fx market with large swings and low volumes cannot be traded technically.
Mark my words EUR is on parity with USD by year end and will drop already begin of october.
Ignore
Jamaica
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 18:56
We all have our morons :)....Ashraf must be enjoying this close devotion from his group.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
14 years ago
Sep 28, 2010 18:46
Ignore,

Yes indeed. Nothing to do with our moronic Mr Brown. Thank the lord he is now history :-)

Ashraf great leader for our forex fundamentals. No doubt about that one.