Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of May 28, 2023Yen Tracking Yield Spreads again?
During yesterday's sleepy markets, I highlighted in this tweet the rally in bund futures (rising prices, falling yields) may signal similar price action at the subsequent session, when US bond yields/prices return from Memorial Day Weekend. Today's bond price action did not disappoint, as the homogenous asset class moved in concert, delivering gap ups in prices and falling yields. This was a desperately needed development for yen bulls (particularly USDJPY shorts). Interpret what you wish from the chart below as to which is the dependent and independent variable (USDJPY or yield spread). Who leads whom? Shorting USDJPY has been the "pain trade" for our WhatsApp Broadcast Group, as we await Wednesday's debt ceiling vote and the JOLTs survey. Hanging in there.
Charts' Year to Date Performance
As the focus falls on AI, Tech and yields, cryptos are making a solid comeback. Aside from Wednesday's Congressional vote on the debt ceiling, keep your eye on the ball, namely the crucial JOLTS report, ISM and the all important NFP +AHE. What used to be +50% odds of 3 rate cuts in H2 is shifting to a possible rate hike in June careful.
