Yen Tracking Yield Spreads again?
During yesterday's sleepy markets, I highlighted in this tweet the rally in bund futures (rising prices, falling yields) may signal similar price action at the subsequent session, when US bond yields/prices return from Memorial Day Weekend. Today's bond price action did not disappoint, as the homogenous asset class moved in concert, delivering gap ups in prices and falling yields. This was a desperately needed development for yen bulls (particularly USDJPY shorts). Interpret what you wish from the chart below as to which is the dependent and independent variable (USDJPY or yield spread). Who leads whom? Shorting USDJPY has been the "pain trade" for our WhatsApp Broadcast Group, as we await Wednesday's debt ceiling vote and the JOLTs survey. Hanging in there.