Have USD Shorts Really Bottomed?

by Ashraf Laidi
May 8, 2011 1:14 | 3 Comments

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Have USD Shorts Really Bottomed? - USDX Spec May 7 (Chart 1)

These charts could seem like the perfect set up for USD upside. It was about a month ago (week ending Mar 18) that USD net shorts bottomed at a 3 year low. Six weeks later, USDX hit a 3-year low thanks partly to a 500-pip decline in EURUSD. We've already argued the case against any considerable USD rebound on here.


Fake rebounds in USD (shown in blue squares) have emerged fairly quickly a few weeks after 2-3% recoveries. The extended decline in USD shorts and subsequent increase in net shorts since 2010 reflects the evident comfort with speculators' shorting of the USD and more importantly, the reality that USD net longs become overcrowded fairly quickly. Could this time be different that USD net shorts have emerged from the most in 3 years? The Greece story must be followed closely, but Fed dovishness isn't going anytime soon. Stay tuned in our Daily Premium "Intermarket Insights" for directional calls.


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Comments (Showing latest 3 of 3) View All Comments
Posts: 113
13 years ago
May 9, 2011 18:52
It says 80 & 85. Where did you leave your EEA*? :)

*Eyeball Estimative Apparatus
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 9, 2011 18:37
can anyone see the chart pane detail on DX. Dark blue on black surely has to be playing silly buggers. The red circles show up fine.
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 8, 2011 11:13
Wow what a chart! Anyone know the IB ticker for "USD net shorts"