As Chinese money market ratres hit 6-year highs, the PBOC noted the spike in rates was a result of falling FX capital flows and excessive reliance on short-term borrowing by some banks. There is talk of a reduction in the minimum reserve requirmenet ratio (RRR), which had not been cut since May 2012. Combining the stresses in China's banking system with ultra-low rates in Australia, the case for going against the Aussie remains strong. AUD is already the worst performer this year, down 11% against the USD, underperforming even the Japanese yen. FX traders with more creativity, can consider getting on the dips in EURAUD and capping the bounce in AUDCHF.
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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Understanding US Dollar 2018 2019
I created this chart in December 2024, pointing to the importance of understanding some of the fundamental events shaping USD Index between 2018 and 2019. Why 2018 and 2019.
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