Telling CNBC the ECB balance sheet has in shrunk by 5% over the last 6 months compared to increases of 5-15% for the other big three. The ECB's refraining from currency wars may not be the only reason to the euro's sharp rebound. 32-month highs in Germany's business surveys and solid auctions by most periphery Eurozone nations as of late can be categorized among "stabilizing fundamentals" for the Eurozone. The road to $1.37 in EURUSD remains intact as suggested in our Dec 4 note "1.35 Euro Target Revised up". .$1.40 is no longer deemed an aggressive forecast, and is considered baseline objective for early Q2 2013. For tradable ideas on FX and commodities, please our Premium Insights here: http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trading-the-pause-in-jpy-euro
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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Understanding US Dollar 2018 2019
I created this chart in December 2024, pointing to the importance of understanding some of the fundamental events shaping USD Index between 2018 and 2019. Why 2018 and 2019.
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