أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 06 أغسطس 2013
Aug 6, 2013 16:43
. ??????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ???? ???? ?? ????? "???? ??? ???????" ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????. ???? ?? ????. ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???????? 2.0 %.
???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? 2.0% ??? ?? ???? ?? 4 ?????. ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? 2.2% ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??. ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ????? ???????.
????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? 2.0% ??????? ??????? ??? "???? ???????"? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ?? "???? ???? ??????".
The only bit of forward guidance from Carney's BoE has been the indication that current gilt yields were too high. That is not enough. Carney will have to introduce an additional policy objective besides the 2.0% inflation target.
UK annual inflation has been above 2.0% for nearly 4 years. Despite halving inflation to 2.2% last autumn, the BoE has yet to meet its mandated target. At next week's inflation report, we expect Carney to introduce growth-oriented targets, such as employment metrics or loans to the private sector, enabling the Monetary Policy Committee to stimulate hesitant growth without focusing attention on a single price target at the expense of sacrificing vital growth.
As long as Mr. Carney insists that inflation will recede back towards 2.0% and uses terms such as "escape velocity", bond traders can be assured that monetary policy is far from "maxed out".
How we got these figures on Nasda100 and SP500. On Monday, I posted a chart here showing the path to 28200 on Nasdaq100. The post was published when Nasdaq was at 28957. On Tuesday, Nasdaq recovered all the way to 29800 ahead of the NY open, before dropping 1600 pts to print a session low of 28200--not 28250 nor 28170 but 28200. Now, you must also ask "how did Nasdaq charted the path from 28957 to 28200?". On Tuesday, we posted this chart identifying that any upside will be limited at the right shoulder resistance of 29750. And that is exactly what it did (here's the chart again)
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