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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
Beware Greeks Bearing Gifts
1.32 Q4
Good Luck Out There
and Greece leaving Ezone is as well out of question as restructuring.
Of course Greece is as bankrupt as Ireland and Portugal... if they would follow given Greece exits a bank crash is inevitable. Thus the Greeks play just hardball with Merkel. That's all.
They want indefinite extensions and easening rates. And they will get it. Next Ireland will get it and Portugal will get then Spain and Italy will declare bankrupt and...
Merkel lost big. THIS is what could further weaken Euro. The biggest suporter a lame duck. But I think monday will bring a short lived relief rally. To about 1.45. Good for short.
"It would lead to a considerable devaluation of the new (Greek) domestic currency against the euro," the paper states. According to German Finance Ministry estimates, the currency could lose as much as 50 percent of its value, leading to a drastic increase in Greek national debt. Schuble's staff have calculated that Greece's national deficit would rise to 200 percent of gross domestic product after such a devaluation. "A debt restructuring would be inevitable," his experts warn in the paper. In other words: Greece would go bankrupt.
Greece's economic problems are massive, with protests against the government being held almost daily. Now Prime Minister George Papandreou apparently feels he has no other option: SPIEGEL ONLINE has obtained information from German government sources knowledgeable of the situation in Athens indicating that Papandreou's government is considering abandoning the euro and reintroducing its own currency
lesson to be learned.... and i repeat again... never assume things...
mach... i hope you gained some wisdom thru this as i have the last 2 weeks when i was down 1700+ pips at one point... don't assume and respect the chart as is...
expecting extension lower to 4230/40 monday b4 we see some bounce.... 4420/30 level will act as first main resistance now... only clear close above 4430 would see move higher to 4630/50...
looking at the weekly chart... bulls will be on the defensive... could see a much stronger pullback than many anticipates....
good luck and have a good weekend!