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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
The reason i believe that we are going to test march low's again is because I believe a credit contraction of the scale we are witnessing is simply too enormous to be resolved within few months and with few decisions by central banks.
Monetary policy has been proven to be lagging behind actual economy. In other words, central banks are REactive rather than being PROactive. Thus what has been done to face the crisis so far is only a reaction to what has happened. I believe that we are going to face another wave of problems very soon which central banks have not done anything yet in anticipation of them.
To me, there is a small chance for stocks to make new highs this year, but I see a good chance that stocks test march lows some time towards the end of this year or early next yr.
I know might opinion sounds a bit radical, but, hay, we are going through extraordinary times where anything is possible.
as for oil i do also see it touching the 37 40 level by year end. can u explain me ur point of view
as for march lows i do share ur views mainly because the batch of corporate result will not meet expected forecast( as seen for RIM) and unexpected bad economic figure in term of result of credit, consumption, saving rate ( which increased), real estate stock held by bank nad their impact on the housing industry.
but before having a correction i still see legs in the equity market after next week sell off continuation.
I also expect oil to go below $40.
CAN WE SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SELLOFF IN THE DOW JONES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
we will see..
raj, i see oil going to 63, in which case could take GBPUSD towards 1.54-1,55 and EURUSD to 1.44.
Ashraf
I am sorry to keep my question brief. I knew it wd be bearish. I wanted to know how much bearish (levels). specially for eurUSD. Further, should not oil be below 66 for a few trading session to finally move to 'definitely bearish'?
what do you think?