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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:
JPY
Discuss JPY
SHORT FORT BIG CORRECTION USDJPY (BELOW 105.50) EURJPY GBPJPY
Setting new bearish targets:
- www.tradingview.com/v/5Hu45FZi/
Cheers,
David Alcindor
What's the weighted average for how much a yen cross is affected by its dollar pair? For example, how much is GBP/JPY affected by USD/JPY compared to how it's affected by GBP/USD?
Thanks in advance,
Rob
As you may recall, last week I warned that fundamental and technical elements had lined up to favor a decline.
Since then, price did roll and hit the expect Wolve Waves pattern's 1-4 Target Line and had consolidated in the following interim of time. At this point, I would call this a perfect Wolve Waves completion:
[imagehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PEy5iiQ7/[/image]
What remains is a probable target lower down, which may come to fruition, even though the larger trend remains bullish, as indicated in the larger chart, where a secondary target near 105 remains open for validation.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Recent Price Action And Analysis (4-Hour Chart):
-https://www.tradingview.com/v/3tUXHmtU/#tc71159
Original (March 04th) Analysis & Forecast:
-https://www.tradingview.com/v/82yKkbOI/
Cheers,
David Alcindor
HOWEVER CAUTION ON nfp TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD OR NOT CONFIRM THE TAPERING.
THIS TIME WEATHER ISN'T AN EXPLANATION
-https://www.tradingview.com/v/ctOy3BSx/
Glad to see the chart coming to align with your reasoning.
Thank you.
David
Inflation in Japan is rising, while the Fed's favored PCE prices index slipped
to 0.9% overall in Feb from 1.2% in Jan; well below the Fed's 2% goal. The
divergence between real rates since the last FOMC meeting has been glaring. Even
on a nominal basis USD-JPY 5-yr spreads have reached their highest since last
Sep and are up 30bp from Feb lows and 47 bp from late Oct. With the April 1
Japan sales tax nigh and economic activity expected recede for a qtr or so, the
BOJ is expected to launch QQE2 as the Fed tapers and provides rough guidelines
on when Fed funds rates will be raised next year. Assuming China repeats the
pattern of upping stimuli after a weak start to the calendar year, so as to meet
y/y GDP goals, USD/JPY should target 105.59, the 61.8% of 124.16-75.55 ('07-'11)
hurdle again.