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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
@Nzvic: Yes, I am a convinced low-leverage guy. Similar to Xaron, I am somewhat influenced by "Bird Watching in Lion Country" by De Toit, although I don't trade the way he talks about in that book. I seem to have developed my own approach using fundamentals for direction and "sort of" TA/PA for entries, plus instinct/experience. I've learned to be happy playing the ranges in the pairs I've got used to (cable, EUR/USD, and to a lesser extent EUR/JPY, plus gold; not oil). I only trade the range in the direction of fundamentals-based sentiment. I don't try to play them both ways; just keeps it simpler. I don't depend on trends as such; I'm not even sure I believe in trends as such :-) but let's not get philosophical.
I don't agonise over precise entries, because I figure this is not a high-precision business, unless perhaps one has the expensive tools that the investment banks have at their disposal. Having said that I have been consciously trying to get better entries and smaller drawdowns, and I think it is slowly improving. An experienced trader on another forum I look at said that he defined risk:reward not in the conventional way of stop_size:target_size but as maximum_drawdown_in_trade:target_size. Now although I don't agree exactly that this represents your actual risk compared to your reward, I still think it's a valuable measure of your skill as a trader.
I do know that I have a lot to learn still though! A good dose of humility doesn't come amiss, especially after a good win; it could have been luck!
However, I could NOT resist Gold again at 1117.5, so I shorted a unit. I am prepared to add more all the way up to 1133. However, when it breaks, it will be grandiose!
Hang in there everyone, and don't panic. Heck, even I bought Aussie yesterday at 0.8850 after the WEATHERMEN ANALYSTS came out crying that aussie was heading to 0.8700. I just booked another 100 pips,. Aussie's gig is up no later than Tuesday at 7:30 pm NYT when the RBA makes its rate decision. If it pops, I will be shorting more of it.
Hang in everyone. Odds are Asahraf will NOT be wrong on his Gold call.
Hi Ashraf,
Writng this post from one of coffe shops :) in Holland. Out of my gold short since 1090. I usually go in with
big bucks on ur hotcharts but missed that one due to heavy partyin. Thanks 4 everything and you are
the main reason I can afford this crazy lifestyle.GO ON ASHRAF!
Will see you on the 13th of March THXTHX
Can someone share their insight on OIl??? I see acorrection back down again in the short term??
thanks
Ernie
trying to trade a number of currencies, commodities, index futures and stocks all at the same time is hard for the pros also.
only 30% of days are trend days - the rest play around the range wherein brokers make their living. you need totally different set ups to play the different types of days.
good luck