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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 19:29
mont - looks like you are on your journey to money - good luck - yes luck does play a part sometimes
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 19:24
@pippedoff..i couldn;t resist i added @1118...but i might cover if we get a good enough drop..but like ashraf said every1 just sit back an lets see how it plays out..this still could be a great oppertunity to add short positions..lol..i still can;t beleive that rumour yesterday stoped golds decline dead in its trax..gl have a great weekend
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 19:23
@Cool: Definitely with stops. Yes, large ones, but with low leverage. My main broker at the moment has mandatory stops anyway, so I don't have the choice of no stops. You could say my physical stops are disaster stops and I have tighter mental ones. [Anyone casually reading this, if you use large stops, be sure you know what you are doing. I _think_ I know what I'm doing :-) ].



@Nzvic: Yes, I am a convinced low-leverage guy. Similar to Xaron, I am somewhat influenced by "Bird Watching in Lion Country" by De Toit, although I don't trade the way he talks about in that book. I seem to have developed my own approach using fundamentals for direction and "sort of" TA/PA for entries, plus instinct/experience. I've learned to be happy playing the ranges in the pairs I've got used to (cable, EUR/USD, and to a lesser extent EUR/JPY, plus gold; not oil). I only trade the range in the direction of fundamentals-based sentiment. I don't try to play them both ways; just keeps it simpler. I don't depend on trends as such; I'm not even sure I believe in trends as such :-) but let's not get philosophical.

I don't agonise over precise entries, because I figure this is not a high-precision business, unless perhaps one has the expensive tools that the investment banks have at their disposal. Having said that I have been consciously trying to get better entries and smaller drawdowns, and I think it is slowly improving. An experienced trader on another forum I look at said that he defined risk:reward not in the conventional way of stop_size:target_size but as maximum_drawdown_in_trade:target_size. Now although I don't agree exactly that this represents your actual risk compared to your reward, I still think it's a valuable measure of your skill as a trader.

I do know that I have a lot to learn still though! A good dose of humility doesn't come amiss, especially after a good win; it could have been luck!

PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 19:06
This is why I try and be flat on Fridays. There always seems toi be a mindless short-covering relief rally of trash euro and gbp, which excites the masses into go0ld, aussie, kiwi.

However, I could NOT resist Gold again at 1117.5, so I shorted a unit. I am prepared to add more all the way up to 1133. However, when it breaks, it will be grandiose!

Hang in there everyone, and don't panic. Heck, even I bought Aussie yesterday at 0.8850 after the WEATHERMEN ANALYSTS came out crying that aussie was heading to 0.8700. I just booked another 100 pips,. Aussie's gig is up no later than Tuesday at 7:30 pm NYT when the RBA makes its rate decision. If it pops, I will be shorting more of it.

Hang in everyone. Odds are Asahraf will NOT be wrong on his Gold call.
mckinnovation
Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 49
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 19:01


Hi Ashraf,

Writng this post from one of coffe shops :) in Holland. Out of my gold short since 1090. I usually go in with
big bucks on ur hotcharts but missed that one due to heavy partyin. Thanks 4 everything and you are
the main reason I can afford this crazy lifestyle.GO ON ASHRAF!

Will see you on the 13th of March THXTHX
Ernie
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 8
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 18:31
Hi

Can someone share their insight on OIl??? I see acorrection back down again in the short term??

thanks

Ernie
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 18:29
mont - keep at it with low leverage, the more you play and practice - the better you will get, and soon you will find your positions seem to be in the money more often than not. The other key is to build your expertise in one or max two instruments only, that restricts over trading.
trying to trade a number of currencies, commodities, index futures and stocks all at the same time is hard for the pros also.

only 30% of days are trend days - the rest play around the range wherein brokers make their living. you need totally different set ups to play the different types of days.

good luck
coolshades
UK
Posts: 53
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 17:41
mont, you trade without stops or large stops?
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 17:33
Thanks Vik. New one on me :-) Well I'm so used to underwater positions, my feet are permanently soggy :-) (Low leverage helps prevent trench foot though :) ).
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Feb 26, 2010 16:13
mont, marketmakers day are when the trading is very range bound and retail investors are normally at the wrong end of the trade - buying at the top and selling at the bottom - brokers are happy then