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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:
USD
Discuss USD
begin to believe in Ashraf's bullish doji and bullish hammers.... or is it just pure chance?
In fact it is very bad for EUR the increasing differences of eurozone economies.
Germany needs already higher rate Spain needs lower rate.
Apparently this crack pot thinks PBOC will accomplish what ECB doesn' get mentally.
Nope.
Now Germany has pension age 67 and France wants to keep 60. That makes a big difference in productivity . Again politics will eventually destroy Euro.
Metals on the other hand I hold short near term. Oil another weak base commodity back of dollar roll over. Mean while S&P, Nasdaq and Dow do make good indicators at whole a picture of the american economy, wait till the M3 data will be received next month.
how do u call inflation plus risng unemployment?
all that liquidity is not capital. Or, debt cannot be paid with liquidity. So eventually cash becomes rare and cpi becomes as negative as now effective rate is negative.
expecting a deflation that will not come could be a risky bet for lokhart and its head. are the betting on decreasing cpi?
More so-called quantitative easing is a form of risk management, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said in a speech in Savannah, Georgia. Given the circumstances of sluggish growth and measured inflation that is too low, I give greater weight to the risk of further disinflation leading to deflation.
I think there will no further deterioration of USD. There is no indication that the USD is entering a period of serious danger.Even a big chunk of easy money by QE2 will not stop to shore up USD by co devaluating.
It is obvious easy money is first of all for emerging markets and hence China. As easy money
creates national debt , China is the easy money tank , it imports debt.
To avoid or at least postpone deleveraging it is therefore necessary appreciates the yuan.
That is about the same as making more space in the easy money debt tank. It must happen soon or deleveraging will come early.