EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
سيناريوهات الانتخابات الأميركية للدولار و الذهب و الأسهم
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الحلقة الاولى من ندوتين أقدمها عن تأثير نتائج الانتخابات الأميركية على قطاعات بورصة المؤشرات و الدولار و الذهب مقابل الفضة. ما هي الأسهم الاكثر استفادة من عودة ترامب الى البيت الأبيض او فوز هاريس؟ و ماذا عن عامل الفوضى و عواقب رفض ترامب قبول الهزيمة؟
I didnt mention it in my book because FX does not always respect yield differentials. This would depend on the policy expectations of the central banks and whether there is reason to believe contrasting policies underway. So, if you take EURUSD vs GER-US yield spreads, there are times when the correlation is rather weak. Again, deciding when the spread is relevant or not depends on central banks. But the technical apsect of the development in the spread is also crucial. I will explain that in my Jan 23 seminar. Thanks for your questions.
Ashraf
Ashraf
I forget how to use the spread between two country's certain bond yeild to analsis FX, could you teach me?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4trJRUZZWRE&feature=related
Ashraf
I will likely be in Tokyo, Australia & Singapore in April/May but not yet sure about China. We will see.
Ashraf
genetically modified food.
As a forex trader I have to have risk management. The simplest form of risk management is to place a stop loss order. That means if a trade develops in a direction ( actually as prices are one-dimensional there is just one direction but two opposite possibilities ) opposite to my expectation the trade is closed by entering the opposite position , with a pre-determined loss.
This could be dubbed as try-and-error. The market is the unknown and I do an experiment with the unknown. I do not learn anything about the unknown from
whatever many such experiments.
Thus this risk management is not risk management.
Another advanced form of risk management is not to trade prices, but the structure.
All currencies are priced relative to each other and all are traded relative to each other currency. These mutual dependencies are what we call structure in mathematics, under the assumption that the structure is invariant to a particular class of transformations. In practice one trades the totality of the forex market
with very many trades at once. If the invariance holds, no loss can occur. And no profit either.
Thus if one knows the structure , trading the structure is as good as no trading,
if there were no invariance- respecting dynamic. Proverbially what comes up must go down, what goes down must go up. You sell what came up and wait that those which came down to go up. As long as the currency markets function properly, this must be so with mathematical precision. Because it is a linear system.
In the case of genetically modified seeds there is no linear system. If it were so
no evolution could ever have happened.
We do not know the structure of this market because everything that is alive takes part in it. No risk management is possible.
Because we cannot decide risk from benefit.
It is also not possible to place a stop loss order because this gene market is
entirely non linear and possibly has a dimension which is not a whole positive number.