Forum > View Topic (Article)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
View Article
This thread was started in response to the Article:

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
Trader
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 1:17
Look at the commodity currencies ripping right off the opening. Losses are mounting. Dollar bulls are going to be so crushed.
aviat72
New York, United States
Posts: 12
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 8:33
http://www.variantperception.com/sites/default/files/uploads/Spain_-_The_Hole_in_Europes_Balance_Sheet.pdf

Ashraf:

This note talks about the Spanish housing bubble and the loans tied to them. They estimate total losses in the order of Eur 250B It seems the banks in Spain seem to have some leeway in how to mark their book. Is this something which will blow up someday, or something which will remain hidden under the carpet forever?

Much of the negative reports about the Euro Zone have focussed on the Eastern Europe and the Baltic. But Spanish housing bubble seems to be the grand-daddy of them all. The number of unsold homes in Spain is the same as the US, a market six times as big as Spain! How do you think this will play out?
houram
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 55
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 8:13
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 3:29
Rob, Exactly. CAD in 2007 and 2008 sometimes showed some great deviations away from oil. And i repeat, the Bank of Canada analysis are based on assumptions of $CAD at 87 cents per 1USD i.e. 1.1494.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 3:22
OK, thanks -- sounds like a good reason for reason for people not to be concerned about intervention at all. Also, from what I've noted. USD/CAD moves more based on risk related to stocks than oil --- but then again, if you are saying that oil is now dictating risk (stocks), I guess that's the same thing. Thanks and enjoy your "time off" - in quotes because I know you'll be watching the markets.
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 3:13
Rob, a close below 1.06 would be very negative in USDCAD. Here's what Carney said today.

price INtsability OK for attaining financial stability.ie saving banks.http://bit.ly/djwAI

if he gets super dovish, then not good for CAD.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 2:00
Wow, it's about time you take a vacation :). You deserve it!! Big time. Can I bother you once more before you go?
When would you thrown the towel in on a long USD/CAD. Thanks and enjoy! Please share where you are going if you are comfortable with that, just a curious person I am. I won't hunt you down, don't worry.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 1:51
One last thing to all, I promise (for now)--- this is an interview with Max Keiser from France. I believe he also predicted the crash well ahead of time. It's about the state of banks and how they swap toxic assets when they need to report their holdings. Also, how American GDP is represented by: obviously spent consumers and WAR mongering.

Unfortunately, on his own site, he yells and screams which I think can discredit him to some people but if you have some time, this is definitely worth listening to. I don't have a fact-checker for his statements but it sounds dead on. It's worth listening to, even if just to discredit the bears and me on how "ridiculous" and over-blown his statements are.

By the way, does anyone follow this guy?
http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/GaryNullShow080309.mp3
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 1:44
Thanks Rob. Ill be on vacation for the next 2 weeks. I won't be sending my daily analysis to CMC Markets clients but will try to write the Intraday Market Thought on the websit at least once per day as well as some updates on twitter.

Ashraf
Rob
New York , United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 23, 2009 1:41
Hi Cougr,

Read this! Bank of Japan's positive tone may as well be the same as the Fed's rhetoric of a stabilizing economy - all to force those uninformed, distracted Americans who already have the wool pulled over their eye's, get completely suffocated on reality. The only thing stabilizing is the investors wallets with money in stocks and commodities. The number of "for rent" commercial real estate properties is growing by the day. I literally see this walking down the street. Granted NY got hit harder because of the loss of finance jobs, but consumers are spent, they're done! Citi and BoA are still sitting on so many potential (probable losses) and Meredith Whitney is talking about many more (I believe 300) bank failures. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a 10-year deflationary (hopefully not inflationary for me with dollars in US) depression.

Anyway Japan is advertising on TV, to their citizens to buy their debt. Just digging deeper into the hole.

I know less than anyone on this forum about the economy, etc.., I chose to be a health expert - as you are worthless without you health!

I wonder if Yen is appreciating because of those people who realize we're in no way shape or form in a stabilized place. The system may not collapse but...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6065071/Japanese-turn-to-ads-to-sell-national-debt.-What-slogan-should-a-UK-campaign-use.html

Sorry to take up so much space, thanks for letting me vent a bit.