CHF

montmorency - I agree that it's quite plausible SNB did NOT intervene these last few times when EUR/CHF went up only about 80 pips or so. When they intervened in spring '09 (first I think) - we saw it shoot up about 400 pips. Perhaps they are waiting for a large sell-off in order to really show the CHF longs who's boss. Regardless, I'm in at 1.4630 and looking to get about 40 pips out of it to 1.4670. If it drops, I feel safe doubling down.
Ashraf - I wonder if the SNB thinks the way you are. That is, if they don't support it, it will act like a downhill skier. I'm sure they don't want that, and hopefully realize it, because I went long. Thanks for all.

Peeps,

I'm tagging along on this one as well. I have gone long at 1.4636.

@Chloe: I'm no expert on this believe me, but I have an order in to close at 1.4670. 1.4675 might be ok too :-)

@Cool: That is also a reasonable interpretation :-) (Wait till they have intervened, and then sell...for example).

hi ashraf or mont im new to this pair but like gifts..lookin @ a chart do u think 1.4675 would be a good exit? thanks

Newbie: What he is saying is that as the CHF appreciates against the Euro (as it seems to have a tendency to do), when it gets down to a certain point, the SNB are likely to intervene to get it back up, since they don't want it to be too strong and discourage exports, etc. You can see the spikes clearly if you look back.

If you position yourself when it gets down to these levels, you can make money.
I have only managed it a couple of times, but if you are observant and patient, I am sure it could be another of Ashraf's "gifts that keep on giving"! :-)

Beware though, I think a little while back, SNB indicated or hinted it wasn't going to intervene any more, so if you depended too much on this you could get caught. However, it looks like they have decided to start doing it again.

Look carefully at the chart and you should be able to pick out approximately where they are likely to intervene. There are no guarantees here mind. It may be a gift, but it's only handed out to the crafty :-) Allow yourself a little leeway both in entry and take profit; i.e. don't try to take the whole move, just take a bit of it.