Archived IMT (2009.09.18)

GOLD and SILVER are set to make their first 2-day losing streaks since mid August. So far this year, gold has never started a new uptrend after a losing week that followed 2 straight winning weeks. Thus, a lower close this week is unlikely to renew the current upswing past the 1,020s this time. We still expect a retreat towards 960 before a more successful attempt past 1030 high and eventually towards 1,200 as early as end of Q4. The 4-day selloff in equities was instrumental in propping gold's latest run-up, but the next sell-off in equities may not be as gold-positive, especially if it is caused by broadening talk of tighter monetary policy in US and EU.