Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2009.09.30)

by Ashraf Laidi
Sep 30, 2009 18:21

CHICAGO PMI IMPLICATIONS FOR ISM MANUF. Today's decline in the Sep Chicago PMi from 50 to 46.1 was the first decline after 3 straight monthly increases, accompanied by a retreat in below the 50.0 expansion level in each of the production, new orders and supplier delivery indices. The employment index edged up by a negligible 0.1 point to 38.8. The strong positive correlation between the Chicago PMI and ISM manuf stands at a monthly 0.91 since 1990

, suggesting that tomorrows release of the Sep ISM shows a strong likelihood for a decline from the previous Aug 52.9 reading. The August expiration of the cash for clunkers program may have been instrumental in causing a drag across the indices. $69.95 in crude (trend line resistance from Sep 17 high) corresponds w/ $1.4675-80 in EURUSD.


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