Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.03.02)

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 2, 2010 20:45

A PRICELESS CASE OF DEJA VU maybe emerging this week: AUDUSD fails at the 100-day MA of 0.9065, which we WARNED IN OUR PRE-RBA IMT yesterday by indicating: any subsequent break-out has to face the 100-day MA at 0.9070 (100-day MA not broken since late January). Today AUDUSD continues to fail these CONFLUENCE LEVELS (100-day MA & 61.8% retracement at 0.9038). **** FLASHBACK TO TUESDAY DECEMBER 1st when the RBA hiked by 25 bps to 3.75% only for the Aussie to peak at 0.9326 before being dragged down 2 days later along with ALL RISK ASSETS and CURRENCIES on that INFAMOUS FRIDAY Dec 4th when the stronger than expected US Nov jobs report (released Dec 4th) proved to be an extremely USD-positive event to the extent of UNWINDING THE USD-CARRY TRADE (dragging down gold, silver, oil, stocks all against USD and JPY). And Yes YOU've GUESSED IT: This coming Friday is the Feb US jobs report, only this time we may have a SNOW-FILLED DISAPPOINTMENT that could drag down equities & commodities to the benefit of the USD & JPY. Here's another thing; GOLD HIT a new record high against EUR on that week ending in Dec 4th, the same as TODAY (gold hit new record in EUR terms). And if that is not enough, today's YEN strength PRECEDED the eventual retreat in US stocks. Markets are losing steam as S&P500 approaches 1120 (previous 50% retracement of 2007-2009 move). CONCLUSION: A new round of strength in USD + JPY emerging later this week against all major FX, alongside a protracted pullback in equities + metals.


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