Archived IMT (2010.03.24)

FX TECHNICAL TRENDING. While we always advocated the importance of paying attention to fundamentals on this website, the past 2 weeks have been dominated by technical trending in FX markets, whereby the US dollar began accumulating strength against EUR, GBP and to a lesser extend commodity currencies, until even risk (Portugal downgrade and disappointing US durable goods) started to weigh in equities and led to broader USD strength against AUD, CAD and NZD.. While our $1.32 EURUSD target for quarter end is now appearing more popular, we lift the probability of $1.28 by mid April to 70%. Fed Chairman Bernankes speech on exit strategy tomorrow to the HOUSE was originally due for Feb 10 but was cancelled due to snow. Thus while the speech may be the same, the Q&A session could shed some new light. Yesterdays GOLD and SILVER HOTCHART is already $17 in the money vs. GOLD and 50 points in the money in SILVER http://bit.ly/dhtUhL