Archived IMT (2010.05.06)

WHAT CAN THE ECB DO TODAY? Euro hit the 5-year trend line support of $1.2730-50 as dealers pressure the ECB into action ahead of todays interest rate announcement (11:45 GMT) and important press conference (12:30 GMT). Following Mondays decision to abolish the minimum credit rating requirements for Greek govt debt, the bank could be expected to do something. The choices it faces could be (1) create a new long term financing facility (2) purchase government bonds to contain yields or (3) cut interest rates. In normal times, any of these options would have a negative impact on the euro, but in this case, such measured would be seen as somewhat of a solution and help stabilize the euro. Either way, the single currency remains in a lose-lose vicious circle. Yesterdays IMT calling for a lower USDNOK did not materialize, but bear in mind that resistance remains at 6.12, which is the 100-week MA a level not broken since September. We continue to deem USDNOK shorts as viable hedge for the USD long trade against high yielders. GBP & UK ELECTION ANALYSIS to follow later in the day. Also, join our 5,100 followers on TWITTER for breaking news & insights http://twitter.com/alaidi