Archived IMT (2010.09.28)

EURJPY fails to regain 114, the resistance prevailing since mid May. Weve already seen a failure in late May-early June, followed by a congestion/resistance during Jul 28Aug 9. Anticipating further pullback in EURJPY may be risky ahead of any possible Japanese intervention, BUT anticipated euro retreat could call up 111.80s via a EURUSD print near $1.3310-20s and USDJPY around 84.00. The short-term technicals appear more bearish than the weekly picture, whose oscillators appear to suggest a rebound towards 115.80s. The fundamental source of further yen gains could be a disappointing US consumer confidence survey later today (exp 52.5 from 53.5). Thus, EURJPY recovery seen capped near 113.60s before a renewed retreat back towards 112.70 and 112. With all yen crosses well off their highs, the negative bias could be intensified on emerging risk aversion/profit-taking in equities.