Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.11.10)

by Ashraf Laidi
Nov 10, 2010 20:25


IRISH DISSENT ON BUDGET, CONFLICTING reports of IMF bailout and a less dovish than expected inflation outlook from the Bank of England triggered the biggest weekly decline in EURGBP since January (and its only Wednesday). Although the BoE continues to see inflation below the 2% target at the end of its 2-year forecast period, it did express uncertainty by noting the chances of inflation being either above or below the target by the end of the forecast period are judged to be roughly equal which is an implicitly hawkish shift, that would serve to delay any QE2 for now. The EURO SIDE OF THE STORY is largely Irish-related as PM Cowen urged opposition Labour Party that if the planned EUR 6 bln adjustment to the budget is not implemented, then the State could not undertake its EUR 50 bln in annual spending, which exceeded EUR 31 bln in receipts. Not going away with the EUR 6 bln in adjustment, would restrict spending by over 50% in services. EURGBP CHART showing a SIMILAR PATTERN TO THAT EURCAD call, whereby a key retracement held up, coupled with a major trendline resistance. The break of the 55-WEEK MA (blue line) BELOW the 100-WEEK MA represents a DEATH CROSS, suggesting further losses towards the prelim 0.84 (June lows), followed by 0.8370 and 0.8150. Only a close above 0.8870 merits re-consideration of this important downcycle. My BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW earlier today


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