Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.11.11)

by Ashraf Laidi
Nov 11, 2010 20:26

IF YOU REMEMBER THE EURUSD WEEKLY Death Cross I alerted on January 19 of this year, then you will remember the similarity with the CURRENT dead cross in the WEEKLY EURGBP See chart here I said in my previous IMT that the 55-WEEK (not day) MA has fallen below its 100-week MA for the 1st time since Dec 2007. This is the same concept (and chart pattern) to the aformentioned EURUSD Dead Cross (see chart in this article ), which was alerted 18 hours before EURUSD fell 2 full figures on Jan 19, extending the sell-off. Some people claim that Dead Cross is ONLY valid when the 50 MA or the 100 MA falls below the 200 (regardless whether it is daily or weekly). This is not true. In both today;s case with EURGBP and the Jan 19 case of EURUSD, the 200-MAs stand (and stood) at a much lower level from the 55 and 100 MAs. Thus, if traders waited for the 50 to fall below the 200, the bulk of the downmove would have been missed. EURGBP is now vulnerable to retesting 0.81 before month end. EURUSD tests the 100-week MA of $1.3640, which is the value to watch for the week before $1.3529 is under focus.


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