Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.11.19)

by Ashraf Laidi
Nov 19, 2010 0:55

EURCAD RECOVERY risks extending above 1.3945 (previous support), coinciding with the 55-week MA seen in the Nov 8 HotChart Looking at the weekly slow stochastics, the downtrend remains intact (as seen in the HotChart). Failure to close Friday above 1.3940s spells further losses ahead otherwise, euro bulls will aim at regaining the 1.4070. Fundamentally, euro may be propped by anticipation of an inevitable IMF/EU loan to Ireland whose objective is to alleviate bond yields. The discussions could carry on into next week, which is likely to keep EURUSD confined between $1.3550 and $1.37. Note the main reason to euros Thursday drop was robust US data (Philly Fed & jobless claims). CHF WEAKNESS competed with YEN WEAKNESS as EURCHF and USDCHF were among the sharpest gainers. The EURCHF right shoulder in 1.3490 was broken swiftly, invalidating the H&S called yesterday. USDCHF will likely consolidate around 0.9870-0.9980, but weekly chart continues to suggest parity break-out towards 1.0150 and 1.0220.

I will be in Paris Friday and Saturday speaking at the SALON ACTIONARIA with CMC Markets-France.


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