Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.02.11)

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 11, 2011 2:42

WILL WE SEE BOTH OF THESE INSTRUMENTS MAKE A TURN IN THIS CHART? As Egyptian protests escalate to the point that the people have surrounded the Presidential Palace signals the surge in anger resulting from Mubaraks refusal to stand down. If the crowds anger transpires to a post-Friday Prayer resurgence and the Military engages with the crowds, then it is possible to see the safe haven USD-buying (which we saw 2 Fridays ago) boosting Treasuries (falling yields), oil, gold and weighing on equities. In such a situation, however, we may see the currencies of these commodities struggle against the USD. This is all the more possible since USD positive momentum is already on the rise. EURUSD never made it above $1.3720s right shoulder (see prev IMT) and has now hit the prelim target of $1.3580, yet requiring a close below the 100-day MA of $1.3520. AUSSIE REMAINS THE FOCUS OF bearish risk currencies, eyeing 0.9930s, followed by 0.9880 and 0.98 (61.8% retracement)

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