Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.02.28)

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 28, 2011 6:34

WE ENTER A BUSY WEEK of central bank speeches, global manufacturing indices (PMIs & ISMs) and the US Feb jobs report. Bernanke will center his efforts to convince the US Senate/House that inflation remains sufficiently weak for the central bank to maintain QE2 into the summer. Two days later the ECB will reiterate the need to consider raising rates near the summer if inflation does not remain anchored (already 0.4% greater than the preferred 2.0% level). Irelands Fine Gael won elections after Fianna Fail lost of its seats. Fine Gael, however, fell short of gaining overall majority, which means a coalition with Labour is the most plausible outcome. The least likely outcome is for Fine Gael to strike a deal w/ Independents/, while markets await to see how will incoming PM Kenny plans to renegotiate of the terms of the IMF bail-out. AUDUSD breaks through the 1.1050s resistance to hit an Asian session high of 1.0182, half a cent below the all-time high of Dec 30. Aussie retail sales & GDP should help gauge momentum for the possibility of new highs but all eyes will be on whether STOCKS WOULD post a scond consecutive weekly decline, which hasnt happenned since 12 weeks. Similarly, GOLD BREAKS the Dec 6 trendline, eyeing a possible retest of the 1423 high from Jan 3. ASHRAF REMAINS ON TRAVEL in the US. IMTs shall revert to normal frequency on Wednesday.


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