Intraday Market Thoughts

Aheaf of the FOMC Announcement

by Ashraf Laidi
Sep 21, 2011 18:34

We will issue Premium trades after todays FOMC meeting. The decision (due at 14:15 EST, 18:15 GMT) will be a complex one as it expected to contain 1) undetermined size of buying and selling of treasuries; 2) further downgrade of the economic outlook and 3) looming dissent from some FOMC members. Speculation is centered on a roughly 70% chance of an Operation Twist; announced $200-$400 billion in selling short term treasuries, which will be reinvested at maturities around 10 years. There is also a roughly 40% chance of a 0.25% cut in the interest rate on excess reserves. Chances of an outright QE3 announcement are merely 10%. Market is seen selling USD and buy metals and equities in the UNlikely event that outright QE3 is done (without Twist). $1.3750 will be a key level to watch at the NY close. Whipsaws in FX, commodities, equities and bonds will be unavoidable. We will cover the market LIVE on Twitter Live at @alaidi and @alaidiPremiumFX To subscribe to our Premium Intermarket Insight, click here:



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