Intraday Market Thoughts

IFO Worsens, Shanghai at 27-mth Lows,

by Kyle Morrison
Oct 21, 2011 10:09

Germanys Oct Ifo business sentiment index hit a 16-month low at 106.4 from 107.5 (exp 106), the Ifo current assessment index hit a 12-month low at 116.7 from 117.9 and the forward-looking expectations fell to a 27-month low at 97.0 from 97.1. Although each of the figures were better than expected, they indicate a gradual deterioration in business confidence, which is in line with our base scenario for a German contraction. Meanwhile, Shanghai Composite index closed at its lowest level since July 2009, down 24% from the April highs. Premium Trades are due around 7 am EST, 11 am GMT.

EURUSD remains rangebound around the the 1.3740s after an earlier decline following German opposition to the French proposal to turn the EFSF into a bank that can borrow from the ECB. A second summit is now likely on Tues or Wed, exploring new forms of EFSF implementation. Merkel cancelled a planned speech to German parliament tomorrow because she has no plan to present.

5 for 9 of the Premium trades hit their targets, 2 remain in progress & 2 were stopped out. To subscribe to the Intermarket Insights, click here: Today's Premium trades are due around 7 am EST, 11 am GMT.

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