Intraday Market Thoughts

US Confidence Due, BoC Unchanged

by Patrik Urban
Oct 25, 2011 14:17

German consumer confidence rose; UK current account deficit narrowed; Italian government may fall. Canadian retail sales rose 0.5%, BoC unchanged. US consumer confidence, manufacturing data due. 6 trades hit all targets. 3 partly hit all targets.

Despite the disappointing data, November GfK German consumer confidence increased to 5.3 from 5.2. German labor market that remains strong and rising income expectations contributed to the increase. However, the economic expectations index fell to -6.2 from 4.8.

PREMIUM TRADES in EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, gold, US crude hit all targets. ES 4 pts away from all targets. EURGBP, Silver, the other EURUSD and other EURJPY partly hit all targets. For DIRECT ACCESS, click here: NONsubcribers can join here:

In the UK, current account deficit narrowed to GBP -2 bln in Q2 from GBP -4.1 bln in Q1 which is the best print since Q1 2008. BOE Governor King said today that inflation is peaking and that QE was executed because there was a risk that the inflation would fall below BOE target level. GBP has been relatively strong over the past few sessions pushing GBPUSD to over 1.6 today.

Italian political situation became more complex as one of PM Berlusconi's ministers warned that the government could fall over economic reforms demanded by the EU. PM Berlusconi is supposed to present a growth and debt reduction plan on Wednesday but yesterday's Italian government meeting failed to produce any agreements. Falling government in the fourth largest European economy would surely reverse the current risk on environment.

Aug S&P Case-Shiller index fell 0.05% m/m from +0.05% m/m; -3.8% y/y from -4.11%.

US Oct Consumer confidence due at 10:00 am EST should tick up slightly to 46.1 from 45.4 in October and Richmond manufacturing index is expected to print +2 from -6.

Canada Aug retail sales rise 0.5% vs prev -0.5%; ex autos sales +0.4% vs. 0.1%


Latest IMTs