Intraday Market Thoughts

Euro Gets Hit in Asia, Awaiting UK Jobless, BoE Report

by Kyle Morrison
Nov 16, 2011 6:20

EURUSD loses a full cent to 1.3430s as risk aversion deepens, hitting risk assets across the board. Markets shift to BoE inflation report and UK unemployment figures. Premium Trades are amending the current GBPUSD trades (after the earlier ones were unfilled) and added GBPCAD trades

All eyes will the UK October jobless figures (9:30 GMT and the Bank of Englands quarterly inflation report (10:30 GMT), followed immediately by Mervyn Kings parliamentary testimony. The inflation report is likely to further downgrade UK growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 to around 1% from the 2% projections made in August. The BoE will also be prove vindicated with its long standing forecast of a peak in inflation after the October UK CPI came in yesterday at 5% from 5.2%.

The all-important UK unemployment report is expected to show jobless rising to the 20K level in October from Septembers 17.5K. More importantly, the October unemployment rate could well hit 5.1% (highest since 1997) from 5.0%, beating the 5% highs reached in 2009 and 2010.

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Aussie Q3 wage price index rose by a disappointing 0.7% q/q and +3.6%y/y compared with a consensus for +0.9% and +3.8% increase. Aussie lost a by full cent alongside EURUSD.

The Bank of Japans monetary policy statement showed the Bank has lowered its economic assessment from October, but seeing moderate pickup in economic activity as illustrated in the first positive quarterly growth after 3 consecutive contractions. The BoJ said the yen and the Thai floods will maintain a on the export sector.

Yen joins USD on the rise as Asia deepens in the red, with Dow-30 futures down 114 pts and S&P500 futures -13.8 at 1240.

 
 

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