Archived IMT (2009.04.01)

Stocks off the lows after Mar ISM edged up to 36.3 from 36.8, but the spectacular 742K decline in US private payrolls as forecasted by the ADP survey confirms the assessment that unemployment is far from its peak. Number of US states with 10% unemployment rises to seven. National unemp rate is at 8.1% and could well reach 9% before end of Q2. Gold quietly nears the $930 figure, as the combination of negative economic data, uncertainty with the US auto industry and the risk of indecision over global coordination by G20 leaders helps support the metal. Having held above $880 since the March 18 FOMC decision, gold is set up for the next leg up towards $1.050. I'll be in a plane returning from Singapore for the next 12 hours so no updates for rest of the day.