Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2009.09.03)

by Ashraf Laidi
Sep 3, 2009 17:12

US & CANADIAN JOBS PREVIEW. Once again pay attention to the interplay between the US unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, with the former expected to rebound to 9.6% in August from 9.4% and the latter seen -230K from -247K. If the ADP continues its patterns of overestimating job losses by an average of 123K (as it did in last 3 months), then payrolls would show a decline of around 175K, in which case would be a great positive for risk appetiteat least into the 30 mins following the data release. But if the unemp rate does hit 9.6% and markets continue to show lack of resilience, then the data could be an opportunity for exploiting bounces in GBPUSD and USDJPY on the short side. Markets could also show scepticism with a btter than expected payrolls, arguing that the effect of Cash-for-Clunkers would be short-lived. CANADAs JOBS (due 1.5 hrs before the US)Unemp rate seen rebounding to 8.8% after remaining flat at 8.6%, while payrolls seen -20K from -44K. USDCAD support stands at 1.0930-34, w/ interim TL resistance at 1.1095, before 1.1130.


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