Dollar Days Continue, Australian Jobs Next
Republicans winning control of the US Senate was listed as at least an 8-to-1 likelihood on betting sites and yet it sparked an across-the-board USD rally Wednesday. USD/JPY ran to 114.80 from 113.60 with most of the USD gains coming before New York traders arrived.
The market then turned to the ADP employment report. It showed 230K jobs compared to 220K expected; the prior report was also bumped up by 12K jobs. That wasn't strong enough to keep the momentum going and the dollar edged back.
Later, the ISM non-manufacturing index slipped to a four-month low of 57.1 compared to 58.0 expected. Within the report, however, the employment component rose to a 9-year high and that kept US dollar selling to a minimum.
Oil was volatile. It sank in early trading but rumors of a Saudi pipeline explosion caused a violent round of short covering to $79 in WTI. That lowered USD/CAD to 1.1392 from as high as 1.1466.
The pound was volatile and fell to 1.5969 after the soft UK services PMI but talk of M&A related boosted it all the way back to 1.5998. We emphasize, once again, the strong performance of sterling ex-USD over the past month.
The big loser on the day was the Australian dollar, down 1.5 cents. The moves weren't tied to anything in particular or easily identifiable and came well-after the RBA yesterday.
The Aussie will stay in focus with jobs data due at 0030 GMT. The market is ultra-skeptical of Australian employment data at this point but the consensus is +20K with the unemployment rate ticking to 6.2% from 6.1%. As always, watch the full-time/part-time breakdown.Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
---|---|---|---|
ADP Employment Change (OCT) | |||
230K | 220K | 225K | Nov 05 13:15 |
ISM Services (OCT) | |||
57.1 | 58.0 | 58.6 | Nov 05 15:00 |
Markit Services PMI (OCT) | |||
56.2 | 58.5 | 58.7 | Nov 05 9:30 |
Markit PMI Composite (OCT) | |||
57.2 | 59.0 | Nov 05 14:45 | |
Markit Services PMI (OCT) | |||
57.1 | 58.9 | Nov 05 14:45 | |
Employment Change s.a. (OCT) | |||
10K | -29,700 | Nov 06 0:30 | |
Fulltime employment (OCT) | |||
21,600 | Nov 06 0:30 | ||
Part-time employment (OCT) | |||
-51,300 | Nov 06 0:30 | ||
Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT) | |||
6.1% | 6.1% | Nov 06 0:30 |
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