Intraday Market Thoughts

Euro Retests Triple Confluence

by Ashraf Laidi
Jul 12, 2013 15:46

How to reconcile a possible weekly bullish engulfing candle in EURUSD against soaring Portuguese bond yields? And how will traders position ahead of next Wednesday's Bernanke testimony? Will the Chairman put on display his latest balancing between dovish insistence to require further improvement in labour markets, and the hawkish certainty of a 2013 tapering of asset purchases? The confusion is helping EURUSD to retest the triple confluence of 55, 100 and 200 day moving averages.  Traders must be able to distinguish between brief spikes and the start of longer-term moves. And part of that answer is the realisation that ECB's Draghi has laid out his forward guidance for interest rates to remain low for an extended period of time.  Does this argue for selling the bounce? And don't forget that the People's Bank of China may come up with an interest rate cut in the RRR, which could magnify the rally in global equities.  We issued 2 trades in EURUSD today, following yesterday's USDJPY and 2 GBPUSD trades, which were charted alongside weekly and monthly technicals in the stochastics of the UK-US 10-year spreads. All these trades and charts are in the latest Premium Insights.


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