Intraday Market Thoughts


by Ashraf Laidi
Oct 24, 2013 19:47

Both UK GDP and German IFO are due on Friday, both reports containing input of hard data and sentiment indicators of two economies on the rise. UK Q3 data (exp+0.8% q/q from +0.7% q/q) could show the strongest report in over 3 years. BoE's Carney's speech at the FT today made no mention of the economic data's confrontation of the central banks' yield-dragging endeavours . Yet, there's already chatter the BoE may adjust its forward guidance as a result of the rate of growth, which outpaced all BoE forecasts.  Can GBPUSD take on the $1.63 figure, or is it risking a double top before a violent decline? And if Friday's UK data did disappoint, would it make sense to reverse the long standing bullishness in cable 4 days ahead of the FOMC meeting? GBPUSD currently stands above its 200-WMA by the highest margin in over 5 years. Some say the fundamentals and technical are overstretched, But that's what many have said 2 weeks ago and 2 months ago.

Our Premium subscribers will note that the last SHORT trade in GBPUSD was on May 29, coinciding with the bottom of the last leg down in cable. Ever since then, all of our GBPUSD trades had been longs. Some were stopped out and some unfilled. Today, we issued 2 new trades in GBPUSD and gave introduced GBPNZD to the Premium Insights with 2 new trades and 3 charts explaining the technical rationale of our trades. 1 of our USDJPY shorts are is 110 pips in the money and the other is +170 pips, both opened on Oct 11. The CADJPY short opened on Oct 2 is 140 pips in the money and also in progress. USDCAD, opened 30 mins before yesterday's BoC decision was closed today with 140 pips. For more info on the latest trades, please our Premium Insights.

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