Never via a Bear Steepener

Why do I post photos with animals late on Friday when the market is hurting and the world is burning?  In each yield curve de-inversion preceding last 5 recessions (1981, 1990, 2001, 2008 & 2020), NONE of them occurred by way of bear steepening. All 5 emerged by way of bull steepening. The chart below shows US 10-yr yields are still below 2-year yields (inverted yield curve) but are quickly narrowing the gap ie the curve is steepening, or de-inverting, or gradually ending its inversion, or normalising. There are two ways in which yield curve steepens (or normalises): Narrowing the gap with both 2 and 10 yr falling (bull steepening) as was the case prior to the last 5 recessions, and; Narrowing the gap with both 2 and 10 rising (bear steepening). The case today is way more dangerous for the economy and the markets. I will discuss all this in more detail at tomorrow's London Trader Show