Intraday Market Thoughts

No News, No Problem for USD

by Adam Button
Feb 12, 2015 0:18

'All else being equal, the dollar rallies'. That's been the story for the past six months and it was again on Wednesday as USD was the top performer while the Aussie lagged. The Australian jobs report is the main even later but there are other notable releases as well. The latest Premium Insights include USDCAD, AUDNZD and NZDCAD.

Heading into the day the focus was on Greece/Eurogroup talks but they weren't a factor for most of the day. Instead, the continued breakout from the USD/JPY wedge pressed through 1.2000 to 1.2044 and the highest in a month.

It was part of a theme of broad US dollar strength that wasn't driven by any particular factor. There was hawkish talk from Fisher and Bullard but that's par for the course.

USD/CAD was another mover and touched 1.2700 as US oil inventories rose to a fresh record. After touching $48/barrel, WTI bounced and that sent USD/CAD back down to 1.2618.

The Australian dollar closed at a fresh cycle low of 0.7723 as support in the 0.7750 range gave way. The Australian employment report is due at 0030 GMT and expected to show a loss of 5.0K jobs and 6.2% unemployment. If it's on the soft side, there is very little support until the post-RBA spike low of 0.7626.

Gold is also struggling to find support after giving up most of its 2015 gains. The lows on the day at $1217 came after reports of a bridge deal for Greece tricked out of the meetings. That also briefly gave the euro a 45-pip boost but it was unable to hold the gains.

The euro has been flat for three consecutive days and that kind of triple-doji is often a precursor to another big move.

Other events to watch in the hours ahead are the Australian consumer inflation expectations report for Feb at 0000 GMT and Japanese preliminary machine tool orders data at 0600 GMT. Japan also returns from holiday today and that could add to the USD/JPY story.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB)
4.0% 3.2% Feb 12 0:00
Machine Tool Orders (JAN) (y/y) [P]
33.8% Feb 12 6:00
Employment Change s.a. (JAN)
5.0K 37.4K Feb 12 0:30
Fulltime employment (JAN)
41.6K Feb 12 0:30
Part-time employment (JAN)
-4.2K Feb 12 0:30
Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)
6.2% 6.1% Feb 12 0:30

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