Sometimes It only Takes a Nudge
When markets are on the razor's edge it only takes a nudge to send them tumbling; that's what came on Tuesday. The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged. The Asia-Pacific calendar is light but a major central banking event takes place later on Wednesday. The EURUSD premium long was closed at 1.1348 for 168-pip gain, while cable remains open. Below is the Premium video posted right after Draghi's inflation remarks.
In central banking, it's not always the words, it's who says them. Yellen has been saying for months that the slowdown in US inflation is only temporary but when Draghi said mainly temporary factors were weighing on inflation it immediately sent the euro higher. By the end of the day, 50 pips had turned into 160 as technical levels gave way and the bears gave up.
At the same time, the IMF cut its US growth estimate for this year to 2.1% from 2.3% and for 2018 to 2.1% from 2.5%. They blamed, in part, the inability of Congress to deliver on promises. That point was underscored late in the day as Republican leaders said no vote on healthcare reform would take place until at least after next week's break.
Stocks didn't like that headline and the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq 1.6%.
The bigger story was in the bond market as European 10-year yields surged 12-16 bps and 10-year Treasuries rose 6.6 bps. That helped to sink the yen across the board including a 230 pip rise in EUR/JPY.
The Canadian dollar got a helping hand from a 2% rise oil and that led to breakouts in USD/CAD and CAD/JPY. However late in the day, private inventory data from API showed yet-another surprise inventory build and oil slipped back.
Cable was also a winner as it rose above 1.28 and then busted through stops in an instantaneous move to 1.2862 as the mid-June highs broke. Part of the equation of Sturgeon announcing a halt on plans to host a Scottish independence referendum in two years.
Buried under it all was an upbeat US consumer confidence number and hawkish (but consistent) comments from Harker and Williams. It's clear that soft data and hints at continuing to raise rates aren't good enough for the dollar any longer.
The breakout in the euro is real but it's not going to be a non-stop climb as the August and June 2016 highs are less than 100 pips away.
Looking ahead, the calendar is quiet for a few hours ahead but we're looking forward to a panel in Portugal later today. Draghi, Carney, Kuroda and Poloz will all appear together at 1330 GMT to talk policy.
|CB Consumer Confidence|
|118.9||116.1||117.6||Jun 27 14:00|
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