Intraday Market Thoughts

USD Steadies, Earnings Keep on Teching

by Adam Button
Apr 25, 2019 18:58

US corporate results continued to beat estimates for a range of industries with Facebook and Microsoft flexing muscle and the latter's market value reaching $1 trillion to join Amazon and Apple. Amazon beat earnings estimates, while JPY and gold were the only gainers vs USD as indices decline for the 2nd straight day, The Canadian dollar is little changed following Wednesday's plunge triggered by the BOC's dowgraded forecasts for interest and growth. US durable goods orders beat estimates but US jobless claims jumped 37K, the highest in 19 months due to the effect of Easter and Passover holidays. Today's Premium trade is currently 150 pts in the green.

(فيديو المشتركين يفحص صفقة اليوم) إغتنام التذبذب المستقر

Wednesday's 40-pip fall in the Canadian dollar probably isn't a fair indication of how the BOC was received. The loonie was higher against the euro, aussie and kiwi and a mid-performer overall. The CAD lows of the day came immediately after the statement as the modest hawkish bias was removed. GDP estimates for this year were also cut to 1.2% from 1.7%.

Poloz, however, offered his usual positive spin in the press conference and the loonie bounced almost all the way back. He highlighted risks on both sides of the forecast and skepticism about some recent negative data.

6 out of 10 During the Holiday

As Japan starts its 2-week holiday known as the Golden Holiday -- the period between end of April and the first week of May, here are some stats: Since 2009, the yen has strengthened versus the US dollar in six out of ten years i.e. USDJPY fell during this period in 6 out of the last 10 years. Note how USDJPY hardly moved for 7 days since Apr 15 before spiking to 112.40 on Wednesday & dropping to 111.38 on Thursday and stabilizing near 111.60s. The Premium USDJPY trade remains open.

The bigger move in FX remains that of the US dollar. Much of is via the tumbling euro  after softer German and French economic surveys.The dollar didn't get any help from Treasuries, with yields across the curve down 4-5 basis points. Cable struggles around 1.29, but key support remains at 1.2780.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m)
0.4% 0.2% -0.1% Apr 25 12:30
Advance GDP (q/q) [P]
2.2% 2.2% Apr 26 12:30

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