Intraday Market Thoughts

USD/JPY at Fresh Cycle High, Aussie Retail Sales Next

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 5, 2013 23:38

More positive signs on the US economy emerged with an upbeat ISM non-manufacturing index on Tuesday. The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged badly. The highlight of Asia-Pacific trading is Australian retail sales.2 of 2 EURUSD in progress. The latest status on the current Premium Insights is seen below:

1 of 2 USDJPY hit all targets, the other 1 long missed the 92.10 entry by 2 pips 2 of 2 GBPUSD stopped out 2 of 2 AUDUSD longs in progress 1 of 2 EURJPY hit all targets, the other 1 long unfilled. 1 of 2 CADJPY longs hit all targets, the other long unfilled 1 of 2 AUDJPY longs hit all targets, the other long unfilled 1 of 1 EURGBP was not filled 2 of 2 Gold stopped out 2 of 2 SIlver in progress 2 of 2 oil in progress

The euro jumped higher on an MNI report saying the euro hasn't risen enough to prompt action from the ECB. The report cited ECB sources and added that the majority of the ECB sees little risk to the economy from recent euro strength.The report prompted a quick move to 1.3598 from 1.3525.

Overall risk sentiment was boosted by the ISM services report. Although the headline number was only slightly stronger than expectations at 55.2, the employment component leaped to a nearly 7 year high.

USD/JPY climbed higher throughout European and US trading. From 92.10, the pair steadily climbed to 93.74 – the highest since May 2010. Yen crosses similarly broke recent highs as risk appetite improved and the S&P 500 gained 1%.

The Australian dollar was choppy after holding rates unchanged but tilting dovishly. The next meeting is on March 6 and the OIS market is pricing a 36% chance of a cut. The global macro scenario will help determine whether they cut or not but the main factor will be domestic data.

The first important release will be December retail sales at 0030 GMT. The consensus estimate is for a 0.3% rise in the month.

Another event to watch will be comments from BOJ member Sato at 0130 GMT. BOJ leader Shirakawa announced Monday that he will end his 5-year term a few weeks early.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Retail Sales (DEC) (m/m)
0.3% -0.1% Feb 06 0:30

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