Intraday Market Thoughts

USD Turning Point?

by Ashraf Laidi
Jul 24, 2020 18:29

Here are two charts for the US dollar index and another chart at the bottom of this piece. Is this a turning point for the US dollar? You know the US dollar has a problem when it's posting its biggest weekly decline in 4 months on the same week that S&P500 is having its worst week in over a month. But let's look ahead: Will USD bulls finally see some light at the end of the 4-month tunnel? The two charts suggest USD stabilization/bounce could start as early as next week. But what's beyond that? Read on below.  The Premium long EURUSD was closed for 295 pips yesterday and the long GBPUSD entered 16 days ago hit its final target for 295 pips earlier today. The EURCAD is currently +430 pips from the first time it was issued in May 28, before a 2nd trade was issued on Jul 16th . And here is OPEN ACCESS to this WEEK's Premium Video. 

Click To Enlarge
USD Turning Point? - Bloomberg Usdx Dxy Jul 24 2020 (Chart 1)

One USD-positive narrative anticipates that macro damage in and out of the US will re-ignite fresh wave of equity selling, prompting the usual USD-demand.  One USD-negative narrative is that the Fed—which has already reduced its asset purchases over the last 4 weeks-could easily crank up liquidity and put off any USD-risk aversion fire. We could also mention surging Eurozone portfolio flows, but we'll stay here all day/night arguing. SO let's cut it short and mention some technical signposts, leaving you with this once-in-a-lifetime chart.   


Latest IMTs