Intraday Market Thoughts

What the Market is Whispering

by Adam Button
Jan 13, 2014 22:39


  • The drop in bond yields led the latest move, expect the bond market to stay ahead of the curve
  • 3% US economic growth this year isn't the sure thing economists claim
  • The market doesn't like the Fed's comfort level in the taper timeline, Bernanke/Yellen saying the pace of taper isn't certain would calm nerves
  • The only sure thing in a 'risk off' market in 2014 is yen strength
  • Dec vehicle sales were the first sign of unexpected US economic weakness
  • Non-farm payrolls were the second
  • Tuesday is retail sales and a third sign of softness would be tough to ignore
  • It's still way too soon to panic, most moves so far this year have simply retraced the low-liquidity moves from Dec 20-31

Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +. EUR +14K vs +31K prior JPY -129K vs -135K prior GBP +18K vs +23K prior AUD -57K vs -57K prior CAD -61K vs -58K prior CHF +5K vs +11K prior

The market has struggled to build any significant positions in euros because of the lack of consistent trend. The move toward neutral came after the break of the 55-dma but Friday's rebound likely confused traders further.

In the latest from the Premium Insights, 1 EURUSD, 1 USDCAD, 1 GBPUSD, 1 NZDUSD and 2 Gold trades are in progress, while 1 NZDUSD hit all targets. These are found in the latest Premium Insights.
Act Exp Prev GMT
Retail Sales (DEC) (m/m)
0.1% 0.7% Jan 14 13:30
Retail Sales (ex. Autos) (DEC) (m/m)
0.4% 0.4% Jan 14 13:30
Electronic Card Retail Sales (m/m)
0.6% 0.6% Jan 13 21:45
Electronic Card Retail Sales (y/y)
5.5% 6.7% Jan 13 21:45

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