Posted May 25, 0:25

Fischer Focused on Inflation, CAD Shorts Flip

FOMC's Mester speech May 25 16:00
Fed's Stanley Fischer speech May 25 16:45
Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (MAR) May 24 23:50
Merchandise Trade Balance Total (MAR) May 24 23:50
5 hours ago: 

Weekend comments from Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer were largely ignored but his optimism on growth and concern about low inflation bears closer scrutiny. The trading week begins with mild US dollar strength. CFTC positioning showed fewer euro shorts and CAD traders caught wrong-footed.  After stronger than expected US core CPI figures on Friday and headline-gabbing remarks from Greece interior minister indicating his country has ran out of money,  EURUSD was stopped out and GBPUSD remains in progress. The week begins with a holiday and the United States, Hong Kong, South Korea and parts of Europe so trading will be thin. The long weekend may have let Fischer slip some important comments in under the radar at a central banking conference in Portugal.

“It's sort of ironic that at the present we have an output target and we have an inflation target, which are supposed to be conflicting, but we're more or less there on the output target,” he said. “We are not there on the inflation target, so that we have to put in a lot more steam.”

PREMIUM INSIGHTS Update: May 20, 14:33
What Data Will Yellen Depend On? May 21, 2015 23:04: 

If the Yellen-Fed had a single refrain this year it would be data dependency but at some point policymakers need to look at the numbers and decide. The pound was the top performer Thursday while USD and CAD lagged. The Fed's Williams and BOJ decision are due later.  Both of our adjusted EURUSD and GBPUSD neared their final targeta as was confirmed in this week's Premium ideas and charts. EURGBP was stopped out.


Intermarket convergence: bunds, oil, USD, EUR May 21, 2015 19:52: 

Ahead of Friday's IFO,Draghi/Yellen speeches, here is the latest technical picture in intermarket dynamics.  FX, OIL, BOND CHARTS & ANALYSIS