Posted Jul 31, 23:05

Who to Trust? Stocks or FX

Nonfarm Payrolls (JUL) Aug 01 12:30
Chicago PMI 52.6
Markit Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Aug 01 13:45
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5 hours ago: 

We look at why a divergence emerged in stocks, bonds and FX on Thursday and what it means ahead of non-farm payrolls. Despite the 2% fall in the S&P 500, the Canadian dollar was the top performer and ranges were tight. A few indicators and a central bank speech will be released in Asia. A new set of Premium Insights will ve issued prior to the Nonfarm payrolls to leverage existing trades.

A few factors contributed to the stock market selloff:

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PREMIUM INSIGHTS Update: Jul 29, 19:35
Last "Major" Week of Summer

We reiterate the case for EURJPY trades with two new charts. This week's key source of Eurozone of event risk emerges from Thursday's release of flash July Eurozone CPI seen remaining at 0.5% y/y and core CPI at below 1.0% y/y. We're also sticking with our EURJPY shorts, currently netting +550 pips. Our AUDNZD long finally hit its 1.1020 target from the 1.0830 average entry. 1 of 2 GBPUSD long  was stopped out. Full access to trades & charts here.

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Ashraf's Webinar Tonight Jul 31, 2014 18:30: 

Ashraf's webinar starts today at 16:30 Eastern Time (21:30 London) “Currency, Debt & Equity Markets with Fari Hamzei (stocks, indices and market timing) CLICK on REGISTRATION LINK.  After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the Webinar.

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Fed Hawks Grounded Despite Soaring GDP Jul 30, 2014 23:14: 

A strong first quarter GDP reading sparked speculation the Fed won't tilt toward sooner rate hikes but a mostly dovish Yellen cut the US dollar's wings. Still, USD was the top performer on the day while the yen lagged. Look for markets to continue digesting the news while keeping an eye out for an Argentine default.  In our latest Premium Insights, AUDNZD and NZDUSD hit their final targets, while USDJPY was stopped out. EURUSD and USDCHF nearing their final targets, while EURJPY and GBPUSD remain in progress. All details are in the Premium Insights. New York traders filled the thermos with coffee ahead of a busy day that started with ADP employment. The report added little to the debate at 218K compared to 230K expected. It was a small miss but close enough to expectations to keep the good news on the jobs front intact.

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