Posted Jul 31, 21:10

GBP & CAD Speculative Positioning

GDP (m/m) -0.2%
GBP & CAD Speculative Positioning Chart
Jul 31: 

Net speculative interest in the British pound and Canadian dollar continues to move in opposite ways, as speculators reduce net short positions in the pound vs USD to 9,788 contracts—the lowest negative balance since November 2014, while loonie shorts contracts against USD swell to 56,067 contracts, the biggest net short balance since March 2014.

The once stable and non-volatile CAD has been damaged by two rate cuts in less than 6 months, while the pound is boosted by hawkish hints and a recovering economy.

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PREMIUM INSIGHTS Update: Jul 31, 17:18
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The euro-oil relationship Jul 31, 2015 11:57: 

The relationship between oil prices and the euro remains unambiguously positively correlated, especially as the renewed decline in energy reflects a secular bear market in commodities, accompanied by a persistent bull in the US dollar.  So does another 5% decline in oil suggests sub-$1.05 in EURUSD?

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Jackson Hole all about Inflation Jul 30, 2015 17:35: 

Another FOMC statement and another swing at the law of probability. Some banks are considering the probability of a September Fed hike to be as high as 70%. Others prefer to hedge themselves with more appropriate qualitative means of referring to September as a “high probability outcome as long as….”, citing the two upcoming jobs report and their average hourly earnings components.  But even if the next two jobs reports are accompanied by robust hourly earnings, the inflation objective remains in doubt. We've long mentioned in previous pieces how the 20% decline in oil since early May will further retard any recovery in price growth, which has prompted the Fed to drop its phrase in the FOMC statement that “energy prices have stabilized” discussed here.

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