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Latest Article from Ashraf Laidi | June 29, 2009
Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup
The much-anticipated dollar rebound will rather emerge on "Green Shoots" fatigue rathern misplaced views of a US economic recovery preceding the rest of the world.
 
   
   
 
Latest Intraday Market Thought, 11 hours ago: While the dollar is expected to accumulate further gains in Q3, these are likely to be sporadic and choppy at best. Such gains are seen more of a reflexive bouts emerging from extended pullbacks in global bourses, rather than a proactive strategies to build long term USD positions. $1.3750 vs EUR, $1.62 vs GBP remain key resistance levels for the US currency to breach. Meanwhile USDJPY upside... [read more]
 

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Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup - Jun 29
The much-anticipated dollar rebound will rather emerge on "Green Shoots" fatigue rathern misplaced views of a US economic recovery preceding the rest of the world. [read more..]
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Intraday Market Thoughts
Posted 14 hours ago: Dollar remains generally firm despite smaller than expected losses in Asia and low volume activity in Europe. With US markets out for a long weekend, market activity to start unwinding in a couple of hours. Weaker than expected UK services PMI and disappointing Eurozone retail sales may signal the beginning of the next consolidation in data following the phase of slowing deterioration-which was zealously cheered by the markets. GBPUSD looks to test 1.6270 while recovery cpaped at 1.64 and EURUSD gains seen limited at $1.4070. Trades, Links & Ideas on http://twitter.com/ alaidi - Jul 3 07:42

Posted yesterday: Very little suspense in todays market action as the US jobs report deteriorated across the board, allowing USD and JPY strength to emerge throughout the day as stocks stuck at session lows during the course of the session. Our calls pro-USDCAD of more than 100 pips to 1.1620s and going negative JPY crosses (including vs the USD) and pro-USD vs AUD, NZD and GBP have accumulated over 800 pips. We called oil to decline towards 66.50s. Nikkei-225 closed -63 on Thursday but futures are currently calling for -215 pts at the open to 9670, which could extend selloff in JPY pairs. - Jul 2 15:34

Posted yesterday: Although both USD and JPY gaining vs all other currencies, we may see further upside for JPY as USD longs are increasingly short-lived in cautiousness of the next bout of jawboning from Chinese officials regarding reserve currencies. NZDJPY, CADJPY eye 59.70, 82.30 respectively. More updates on http://twitter.com/ alaidi - Jul 2 09:56

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EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Daily EURO chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
JPY Trade Index 29-Year Chart
Monthly chart of 29 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart
Daily chart of 14 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
Speculators' Futures FX Positions
The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
Global Yield Curves
Yield curves are a snapshot of bond yields of similar credit quality and asset class, ranging from maturities of as little as one month to 30 years.
US EU Bond Yield Spreads
Rather than simply comparing currencies' overnight interest rates, FX traders pay close attention to differentials in 10-year yields for the market's assessment of longer term interest/inflation rate horizons. The relationship is straight forward.
Global Interest Rates
Interest rates are the single most important fundamental driver in Forex and the direction of monetary policy is essential in shaping developments in currencies. This direction is determined by the vast array of economic reports, central bank rhetoric and movements in equity and bond markets.
 
   
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Site Poll - July 1, 2009
What is the currency pair you trade the most & why?
  • EURUSD
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  • GBPUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • USDCAD
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Hot-Chart - Jul 2
NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63   Further downside room for NZDUSD remains . more..
 
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Interest Rates
US0.25%
 
JPN0.10%
 
EUR1.00%
 
GBP0.50%
 
CHF0.50%
 
AUD3.00%
 
CAD0.25%
 
NZD2.50%
 
NOK1.25%
 
 
 
 

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