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Latest Article from Ashraf Laidi | Febuary 3, 2010
$1.32 Euro Under Construction
The deteriorating momentum of sovereign concerns in the Eurozone & further dissenting rhetoric from FOMC to weigh further on EUR & other risk currencies.
 
   
   
 
Latest Intraday Market Thought, 5 hours ago: Unlike EUR net shorts vs. USD which have reached new record high of 43,741 contracts SEE CHART http://chart.ly/ 8ec4fx GBP net shorts remain well off their October highs of 62,106 contracts, reflecting less GBP pessimism in the currency against USD. But rising expectations that BoE will be forced into fresh asset purchases ahead of an uncertain election year, coupled with outright longs being... [read more]
 
 

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$1.32 Euro Under Construction - Feb 3
The deteriorating momentum of sovereign concerns in the Eurozone & further dissenting rhetoric from FOMC to weigh further on EUR & other risk currencies. [read more..]
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Intraday Market Thoughts
Posted 10 hours ago: Quiet trade in FX after the Thursday storm and Friday confusion of the US jobs report. The paring of long USD and JPY positions gives way to modest gains in EUR and GBP but that is not encouraging gold or oil traders to lift bids beyond 1070 or 72.50. GBPUSD's deteriorating technicals may allow for a recovery of no more than $1.57 before traders retrenchy ahead key UK data & BoE inflation report. EURGBP vulnerable to 0.8700. - Feb 8 12:34

Posted 14 hours ago: The lack of key fundamental data has helped extend the pullback in the USD and JPY against major currencies, which remains no more than a corrective move w/in an impulsive rally in USD and JPY. Sterling is also among the underperformers of the day, dragged by expectations of renewed QE. Wednesdays BoE inflation report could show a GDP downgrade and reiterate the case for fresh asset purchases. Any rebound in GBP could see it capped at $1.5670. CADJPY is seen amid the few yen crosses likely to garner fresh gains ahead, eyeing resistance at 84.00, with USDCAD vulnerable to retesting 1.0550 CORRECTION (not 1.0650s) - Feb 8 08:06

Posted 3 days ago: NOT ONCE BUT TWICE did gold demonstrate a classic failure; Jan 11 (failure to break about the 38% retracement at 1168) and Feb 3 (failure to regain the 2-month trend line resistance at 1123), getting us near the 1040 target. Looking into next week, the key support now stands 1020. The possibility of $990 before month end stands at 50%. Any pullback in the USD in Asia Monday may lift boost gold to as high as 1075, but resistance wil need to hold at 1098, followed by 1123.

SEE ASHRAF AT THE THIS MONTHS TRADERS EXPO IN NYC (pictures from last year http://chart.ly/ 6wkr4m ) - Feb 5 15:05

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Analytics

EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Daily EURO chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
JPY Trade Index 29-Year Chart
Monthly chart of 29 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart
Daily chart of 14 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
Speculators' Futures FX Positions
The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
Global Yield Curves
Yield curves are a snapshot of bond yields of similar credit quality and asset class, ranging from maturities of as little as one month to 30 years.
US EU Bond Yield Spreads
Rather than simply comparing currencies' overnight interest rates, FX traders pay close attention to differentials in 10-year yields for the market's assessment of longer term interest/inflation rate horizons. The relationship is straight forward.
Global Interest Rates
Interest rates are the single most important fundamental driver in Forex and the direction of monetary policy is essential in shaping developments in currencies. This direction is determined by the vast array of economic reports, central bank rhetoric and movements in equity and bond markets.
 
   
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