Posted Aug 19, 19:10

Risk on as Germany Hints at Turning Taps

PPI Input (q/q) 0.3%
Risk on as Germany Hints at Turning Taps Chart
Aug 19: 

Germany is under increasing pressure to abandon a balanced budget but the hints so far only indicate a willingness to act after a recession is assured. By then it will be too late. What about the solution of talking down the euro? See more below. CFTC positioning data showed a shift into the yen (see chart below), with the highest net speculative net longs vs USD since autumn 2016 when USDJPY fell below 102. A new Premium trade has been issued today ahead of this week's highlights-- Wednesday's release of the FOMC minutes from the Fed meeting (7pm London) and Friday's Powell speech at Jackson Hole (3 pm London with the possibility text released 90 mins earlier). More detail on these in this week's Premium video coming up tonight.

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PREMIUM INSIGHTS Update: Aug 19, 18:00
حاسبة الجنيه الإسترليني واليورو Aug 18, 2019 19:07: 

هناك من متأكد بأن الإسترليني سينخفض تحت ١.٢٠ دولار و البعض يصر ان اليورو سوف يكسر تحت ١.١٠ دولار. و ماذا عن اليورو مقابل الإسترليني؟  تفضل بإستعمال حاسبة اليورو/دولار/استرليني للوصول إلى سيناريوهات مختلفة مبنية على معادلة ثلاثية العملات في الفيديو الكامل


The Week that was & Dashboard Aug 16, 2019 18:51: 

What started as a week of gloom and doom in the markets, ended with a positive note from the US consumer and a cooling in rhetoric on the US-China trade war. This was supposed to be a quiet week, when central bankers are on holiday and economic data on the light side. But from the way the last exchanges occured, the US-China trade war is far from over. China is growing more vocal and its tack is changing as Ashraf pointed out here.  More on this from is time last week, Ashraf issued a Premium short in the DOW30 when it was up 300 pts. The trade was closed with a 700-pt gain. No longs will be issued today despite the index being up 300 pts. There are two existing trades for now. We'll return next week with the FOMC minutes of the last meeting and the Fed's annual symposium for US and global central bankers at Jackson Hole conference, titled this year "Challenges for Monetary Policy" (more details here). Meanwhile, GBP is the strongest currency of the day and the week, in a week that was dominated by swings in indices. More on the market dahsboard below.

Reconciling Positive Retail Data w/ Market Turmoil

The data highlight of the week was the 1.0% rise in US retail sales (control group) compared to +0.4% expected. That makes the first seven months of 2019 the strongest seven-month period for the series since at least 1992. The strength in retail was underscored by by quarterly results and commentary from Wal-Mart. That data is in wild contrast to financial market moves this month. Treasury yields fell to fresh lows with 10-year notes breaking 1.50% and 30-year bonds falling below 2%. Both have fallen 50 basis points since the start of the month – a sign of extreme stress.


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