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Latest Article from Ashraf Laidi | July 16, 2010
Yen Draws Safe Haven Share
Yen strength is here to stay especially as the US dollar's safe-haven lustre is eroded by the worsening US data.
 
   
   
 
Latest Intraday Market Thought, 15 hours ago: S&P500 barely closed above its 200-day MA on Tuesday before falling Wednesday and Today. Daily stochastics show a double top, which in effect can be seen as bearish divergence. Fridays release of US Q2 GDP is expected +2.5% from 2.7% in Q1, but several economists allowing for an undershoot of 2.0%. Whether a disappointing figure would be USD negative will not only depend on the performance of... [read more]
 
 

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Yen Draws Safe Haven Share - Jul 16
Yen strength is here to stay especially as the US dollar's safe-haven lustre is eroded by the worsening US data. [read more..]
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Intraday Market Thoughts
Posted 19 hours ago: SWISS FRANC SOARS on reports that the Swiss National Bank is dumping EURCHF, bailing out of its money-losing interventions, in which it bought EURCHF over past 18 months. The SNB tried defending EURCHF by buying in Q1 2009 at 1.50, followed by more purchases at 1.45, then at 1.43, 1.40 and even at 1.35. Now it seems the SNB is cutting its losses as it continues to close these positions well below the buying levels, thereby, helping CHF against EUR and across the board. Since USD is the days biggest loser, USDCHF is nearing Jan lows of 1.0380s. - Jul 29 09:20

Posted 22 hours ago: USD DROPS ACROSS THE BOARD on a combination of cautious remarks from Moodys about the US credit rating and persistent improvement in the Eurozone consumer sentiment. Although Asian equities finished around neutral territory, markets are decidedly USD-negative. AUD stabilized at 0.89 before rallying over a full cent, eyeing interim resistance at 0.9075. GBPAUD and EURAUD hourly stochastics showing deterioration but daily charts remain bullish. EURUSD continues to eye the 1.3130 target, while USDCAD is increasingly confined to a symmetrical wedge between 1.0275 and 1.0440. RBNZs rate hike proved rather dovish, with the policy statement using words such as deteriorated and subdued regarding future growth and indicating NZD strength to be inconsistent with the growth outlook. - Jul 29 06:16

Posted yesterday: Watch Ashraf's Video Market Analysis discussing AUD, USD, EUR:

http://bit.ly/ 920r5L

And the Latest HOTCHART on GBPAUD:

http://bit.ly/ drvzV6 - Jul 28 12:35

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Analytics

EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Daily EURO chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
JPY Trade Index 29-Year Chart
Monthly chart of 29 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart
Daily chart of 14 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
Speculators' Futures FX Positions
The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
Global Yield Curves
Yield curves are a snapshot of bond yields of similar credit quality and asset class, ranging from maturities of as little as one month to 30 years.
US EU Bond Yield Spreads
Rather than simply comparing currencies' overnight interest rates, FX traders pay close attention to differentials in 10-year yields for the market's assessment of longer term interest/inflation rate horizons. The relationship is straight forward.
Global Interest Rates
Interest rates are the single most important fundamental driver in Forex and the direction of monetary policy is essential in shaping developments in currencies. This direction is determined by the vast array of economic reports, central bank rhetoric and movements in equity and bond markets.
 
   
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Hot-Chart - Jul 28
GBP Getting Best of Down Under   GBPAUD reflects contrasting expectations . more..
 
Twitter Updates (twitter.com/alaidi)
8 hours ago: i wrote this last IMT 7 hrs ago regarding $SPX $EURUSD resistance & US GDP http://bit.ly/ 338li #forex lets talk more tmrow. $$

8 hours ago: The last tweet i had was in the afternoon about Bullard of the Fed opening door for further Fed easing; will catch up in London open

15 hours ago: FED QE FEVER: Bullard: Fed Should Consider Buying More Treasuries to Avoid Japan Type Scenario $FXE $TNX $$

16 hours ago: $CADJPY quickly chases stocks pullback; 82.90 viable in case of disappinting GDP tmrrow $GS sees 2.0% vs consensus of 2.5% $$

 
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Interest Rates
US0.25%
 
JPN0.10%
 
EUR1.00%
 
GBP0.50%
 
CHF0.50%
 
AUD4.50%
 
CAD0.50%
 
NZD2.50%
 
NOK2.00%
 
 
 
 

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