The US dollar is poised for liftoff but it needs something, anything, from the Fed to light the ignition in the week ahead. Last week sported the unusual pattern of the Australian dollar as the top performer with the kiwi lagging – boosting one of our Premium trades. The latest CFTC data showed a surge in euro shorts. On Thursday, we issued new trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD with four new charts, while sticking with our EURJPY and EURAUD shorts, especially as the latter entered at 1.46200, targeting 1.4200 missed its final target by 12 pips. We also await the final 1.1020 target in AUDNZD after the 1.0830 entry on Tuesday produced 1.1016 on Thursday, instead of the final 1.1020.
Last week ended with a durable goods orders report that was much weaker than the 0.7% headline suggested. Excluding defense and aircraft, both orders and shipments were weak due to sharp downward revisions. That led to some re-issued Q2 GDP forecasts and added downside risks to the 3.0% consensus in the first look at Q2 on Wednesday.
Latest Hot-Chart - Jun 12
World Cup & Market Patterns
9 of the last 13 World Cup tournaments elapsed during a period of falling stocks, with an average decline of 6% from the first to the final match. But see what happens in post-WorldCup Octobers.
GDP & Gold's Disinflation Plunge
The bigger than expected downward revision in US Q2 GDP to -1.0% from an initial reading of +0.1% mainly resulted from an inventory drawdown of 1.62% (three times what was originally expected),...