Some good moves on the first trading day of the month leave us optimistic that volatility and the opportunities that it brings are back. We look at the dominant themes in the market at the moment. On Tuesday, the trio of EUR, CHF and USD far outpaced the rest of the market while finishing relatively unchanged against each other. Our Premium subscribers received an alert prior to Today's NZ dairy auction, whose fresh decline in price fueled our Premium NZD shorts against CAD, JPY and AUD. Our Premium GBPUSD short is more than 100 pips in the green. See charts & trades details in the Premium Insights.
Theme 1: US economic recovery and coming rate hikes
This is by far the dominant theme and the burgeoning USD bull market is the result. On Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index rose to a 10-year high at 59.0 versus 57.0 expected. In many ways it's truly astounding that the Fed is still at 0% and printing $25 billion per month.
Latest Hot-Chart - Jun 12
World Cup & Market Patterns
9 of the last 13 World Cup tournaments elapsed during a period of falling stocks, with an average decline of 6% from the first to the final match. But see what happens in post-WorldCup Octobers.
ECI Enforces USD Dynamics
Despite the several US economic releases this week (July ADP on private sector jobs, Q2 GDP, Fed decision and July non-farm payrolls and unemployment), the Q2 employment cost index released on...