Which pair has just broken above its 55-WMA for the first time in 10 months, produced two major Golden Crosses in less than 5 weeks and, which is currently sitting on 130-140 pips gain in our Premium Insights?  Next week's triple US release of ADP, GDP & FOMC (Wednesday) & NFP (Friday) may unleash fresh USD buying, with GDP likely show a 2.9% bounce and the Fed due to affirm the inevitable step towards the end of tapering, alongside some positive colour on jobs. NFP impact may not be too clear, but expectations are looking brighter, considering the clues from ADP and recent trend in jobless claims. Gold selling is seen stabilizing around 1285 as yields are unable to to make any sustainable recovery should help gold remain supported. We remind our subscribers that they are free to hold their longs until the final target, open various positions are different levels aimed at targets around the final objective, or close positions to lock up profits 50-80 pips before the final target in order to re-open fresh trades aiming at around the final objective.

Euro's reprieve from better than expected PMI data proved short-lived, while GBPUSD selling intensified today ahead of Friday's release of UK Q2 GDP. 1 of 2 GBUSD trades has been stopped out. We issue fresh trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD with four new charts ahead of Friday's UK data. Our Premium trades in EURJPY remain in progress, while our two EURAUD shorts, are +500 pts in the money, with the 1.4600-1.4630 short entry on Tuesday, targeting 1.4200 missed its final target by 12 pips (today's low was 1.4212). Similarly, our long in AUDNZD issued on Tuesday at 1.0830 produced a high of 1.1016 on Thursday, 4 pips short of the final 1.1020 target. The trade remains intact. All charts & trades are found the Trades section.

Silver's net speculative commitments rocketed 436% from a net long balance of 766 contracts in the week of June 3rd to a net long position of 4,106 contracts. Net longs went on to rise 224% and 120% in the subsequent two weeks. What's going on? Full charts & analysis.

The RBNZ hiked rates but the New Zealand dollar plunged early in Asia-Pacific trading. On Wednesday, the Australian dollar led the way while the pound lagged in the sixth day of declines. Japanese trade balance is due later. 

A hike from the RBNZ wasn't a sure thing – the OIS market was only pricing an 86% chance and 1 of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted no change. Yet when Wheeler boosted rates to 3.50% from 3.25% the kiwi plunged to 0.8610 from 0.8700.

Two factors weighed. The first was a fresh and aggressive effort to jawbone. Wheeler said the current NZD level is unjustified and unsustainable. He added that the kiwi could have a big fall. Some jawboning was expected but it's a tactic that tends to work best when it's going with the momentum of the market and the recent failure at the 2011 high has awakened the bears.

The second factor was likely the larger one and it was Wheeler saying the “The speed and extent to which the OCR will need to rise will depend on the assessment of the impact of the tightening in monetary policy to date.”

What changed from the previous statement was the second half of that statement. In sum, “assessing” is something that will take time and it's a hint that the RBNZ is now on the sidelines.

The market had been pricing in another 40-50 bps in rate hikes in the coming year but that's now less certain.

We have been bearish on the New Zealand dollar and the fundamental case is now beginning to align with the technical picture. The fall today also breaks the 100 and 55-day moving averages with no firm support below.

Up next is Japanese trade balance at 2350 GMT. The market is looking for a 642-yen deficit.