Intraday Market Thoughts

قبيل وأثناء تخفيض الفائدة من الفيدرالي الأمريكي

Jun 25, 2019 20:27 | by Ashraf Laidi

مع تسجيل الدولار الأمريكي أكبر انخفاض شهري له منذ 17 شهراً بعد إشارة مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي إلى تخفيضات سعر الفائدة المرتقبة، أسمع العديد من المتشككين فيما إذا كانت العملة الأمريكية ستحافظ على مزيد من الانخفاضات من هنا بناءً على توقعات بأن البنوك المركزية الأخرى جاهزة أيضاً لخفض أسعار الفائدة. هل هذا خطأ أم صحيح؟ التحليل الكامل

USD's Biggest Decline in 17 Months

Jun 25, 2019 15:21 | by Adam Button

Three days remaining til the end of the month (and quarter) The US dollar index is posting its biggest monthly decline in 17 months. EURUSD hit a three-month high on Monday and rose above 1.14 to hit Ashraf's target. Gold hit a fresh 6-year in Asia and returns near the highs after a 8% decline in US new home sales. Eatch out for Powell's speech about the US economy at 13:00 Eastern (18:00 London) and dissenter Bullard's speech 6.5 hrs later. The Premium short in USDCAD has been closed at 1.3160 for 200 pip-gain. The latest Premium video is below contains some impirtant mechanics about USD shifts ahead and during Fed rate cuts.

The euro gain to start the week came on a solid IFO survey and continued US dollar weakness. The dollar fell after Treasury yields gave back last week's mini rally. The  US 10-year yields fell 4 basis points on the day and stocks dipped modestly after an early gain.

The Fed's Kaplan argued for patience before cutting rates but also indicated that he was open to looser policy because of rising risks. Trump continued to tweet about the Fed and markets continued to ignore him. His actions on Iran had a larger effect as the White House announced fresh sanctions on Iran. That helped to reverse oil losses and boost it to a modest gain.

Overall moves to start the week were modest but gold has continued to surge, climbing another $20 on Monday. It's on track for the best month since 2016 with an 8% gain. Oil faces resistance at the 59.40 trendline resistance, hence Ashraf's closing of the Premium short in USDCAD at 1.3160 for a 200-pip gain.

Looking ahead, we await Powell's speech at 6 pm London time discussing the economic outlook, where he will surely expound on last week's broad downgrades in US growth. Also important, is St Louis Fed's Bullard speech, where he will surely present his argument for dissenting at Wednesday's FOMC decision, where he made the first dovish dissent in the era of the Powell Fed.

Act Exp Prev GMT
CB Consumer Confidence
132.0 134.1 Jun 25 14:00

Lowe Asks the Question

Jun 24, 2019 12:25 | by Ashraf Laidi

RBA Governor Lowe touched a delicate subject that his counterparts may also have to deal with, especially if this week's G20 goes well.The German June IFO survey beat expectations for the current assessment and slipped on the expectations component. We expect a period of a relative lull in the markets ahead of Trump/Xi meeting at this weekend's G20 summit. GBP pushes above 1.2740 as Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson battle it out for the PM race. More below.  The Premium long  in XRP Ripple at 0.33 entry hit the final target of 0.49. The long EURUSD Premium long at 1.1230 is a few pips away from its final 1.1400 target for 170-pip gain. Below are the chart breakouts for EURUSD and XAUUSD net longs among speculative futures traders in the IMM and Comex respectively.

Click To Enlarge
Lowe Asks the Question - Gold Net Longs Eur Net Longs June 24 2019 (Chart 1)

In a panel discussion on Monday, RBA Governor Lowe mused that it's legitimate to ask how effective monetary easing will be globally. Domestically he also cast questions, saying the exchange rate effect of cutting rates is offset if everyone cuts. That gave the Australian dollar a boost to start the week. We ended the week with US equity markets near an all-time record and economic data still well-within the range of expansion.

The Fed is undoubtedly committed to at least one rate cut, but if US-China talks improve and data holds at these levels, the market may pare back expectations for four cuts in the year ahead. That could be the signal from bonds late in the week as long-end yield crept higher, albeit from extremely depressed levels.

At the same time, proxies for global easy money like gold and bitcoin continue to surge, with the latter touching $11,200 on the weekend and gold climbing above $1405 to start the week. Here is a useful Bitcoin factoid from Ashraf

With regards to the latest in the race for Conservative Party leader and PM, Jeremy Hunt has seen his odds improve from 8-1 on Friday morning, to 3-1 today.  Reports of domestic violence related to Boris Johnson may have weighed, epecially as he avoided discussing the matter in this weekend's interviews. More on this from Ashraf.

ندوة مساء الثلاثاء مع أوربكس

Jun 24, 2019 10:55 | by Ashraf Laidi

لقد تابعنا في الأشهر الماضية تطورات الحرب التجارية بين الولايات المتحدة والصين ورأينا تأثيرها على الأسواق، والآن نستعد للقاء القمة بين الرئيس الأمريكي “ترامب” ونظيره الصيني “تشي” في أواخر الشهر الحالي. وتعتبر هذه القمة من أهم الأحداث المؤثرة على الأسواق في النصف الأول من العام الجاري. للمشاركة في الندوة من السعودية فقط و للمشاركة من باقي الدول

فنيات الدولار بعد قرارات الفيدرالي الأمريكي

Jun 21, 2019 15:02 | by Ashraf Laidi

تابع شاشة أشرف العايدي بينما يحلل صفقاته الرابحة والخاسرة لهذا الأسبوع ويطلعكم على أهم أخبار الأسواق المالية حيث أعلن البنك المركزي الأمريكي لأول مرة تحت قيادة “جيروم باول” عن بداية السياسة النقدية اللينة، والتي واجهت احتجاجاً من “بولارد” والذي صوّت لصالح تخفيض نسبة الفائدة، مما خلق اختلافاً لأول مرة منذ تولي “باول” رئاسة البنك المركزي . شاهد الفيديو لمزيد من التفاصيل